Closing Recap

U.S. stocks are poised for a higher open, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq looking to extend their winning streaks to a ninth consecutive day as investors show zero fear ahead of the Federal Reserve’s pivotal two-day policy meeting which begins today; gold is hitting new all-time highs, the dollar is at multi-month lows, and Treasury yields are falling as markets price in a Fed rate cut. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar remained weak near multi-month lows, with the EUR/USD climbing towards 1.1800 on hawkish ECB commentary, while the Japanese Yen strengthened as traders continued to assess political uncertainty and BOJ policy. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Point Higher, Extending Rally: Equities are set to open in the green, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on track for a ninth straight day of gains, reflecting powerful upward momentum. 
• FOMC Meeting Begins: All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, with a 25-basis-point interest rate cut widely expected to be announced tomorrow. 
• Gold Surges to New All-Time High: Gold prices climbed to another new record, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar, falling Treasury yields, and strong safe-haven demand ahead of the Fed decision. 
• Economic Data Disappoints: The NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index for September came in much weaker than expected, its first negative reading since June, adding to the case for Fed easing. 
• Currencies: The U.S. dollar traded near a two-month low, pressured by high expectations of a Fed rate cut, with the EUR/USD rallying and the Japanese Yen gaining for a second straight day. 
• Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin prices are steady, consolidating recent gains as PayPal’s announcement of crypto integration into its new payment links feature boosts mainstream adoption hopes. 
• Yields & Oil Weaken: Treasury yields are continuing their decline to multi-month lows, and oil prices are also slipping as the market awaits fresh catalysts. 
• China Data Mixed: Chinese retail sales for August slowed, but industrial production growth was steady, painting a mixed picture of its economy.

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets are set to continue their impressive “party on” rally, with futures indicating a higher open that would extend the winning streaks for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to a remarkable nine consecutive days. The market remains in a state of high confidence, with investors showing no fear as they aggressively price in the start of an interest rate easing cycle by the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s two-day policy meeting kicks off today, with the decision to be announced tomorrow afternoon. A 25-basis-point rate cut is seen as a near certainty, following weeks of slowing U.S. economic data, particularly in the labor market. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	49.23	0.0011	45883
S&P 500	58.09	0.0097	6059
Nasdaq	207.65	0.0094	22348
Russell 2000	8.07	0.0034	2405

The bullish sentiment was supported by a weaker-than-expected NY Fed Empire State manufacturing report this morning, which showed a surprise contraction in regional factory activity. This “bad news is good news” dynamic reinforces the narrative that the economy is cooling enough for the Fed to act. Overnight, Chinese economic data was mixed, with retail sales slowing more than anticipated while industrial production held steady. 

The market continues to be driven by strong momentum, with the major indices at or near all-time highs. There is a clear sense of “FOMO” (fear of missing out) among investors, who have been consistently buying any and all market dips for months. While trade and tariff news has been quieter, investors are now looking ahead to a potential announcement on a U.S.-Japan trade deal this week.

Economic Calendar

The U.S. economic calendar today features Canadian CPI and U.S. Retail Sales, which will be watched but are unlikely to change the market’s focus on tomorrow’s FOMC decision. Today’s Major U.S. Releases (Scheduled): 

• U.S. Retail Sales for August (Expected: +0.2% m/m, Prior: +0.5%) 
• Canadian CPI for August (Expected: 3.0% y/y, Prior: 3.0%) 
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment for September 

Key This Week: 

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (Wednesday) 
• UK. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August (Wednesday).
• U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday). 
• Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision (Thursday).
• Bank of Japan (BOJ) Rate Decision (Friday).

Commodities, Treasuries and Currencies 

Gold prices surged to another all-time high, with the December futures contract gaining $32.40 (+0.87%) to settle at $3,719.00 per ounce. The rally was fueled by a weaker U.S. dollar and a continued drop in Treasury yields as investors solidified bets on a dovish Federal Reserve. Crude oil prices edged higher, with WTI settling up $0.61 (+0.97%) at $63.30/bbl, recovering some of last week’s losses as a modest OPEC+ output hike was digested.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.61	USD/bbl	63.3
Brent	0.45	USD/bbl	67.44
Gold	32.4	USD/oz	3719
EUR/USD	0.0026	USD	1.1759
USD/JPY	-0.33	JPY	147.33
10-Year Note	-0.026	%	0.04033

In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped -0.35% to 97.27, trading near a two-month low as high expectations for a Fed rate cut weighed on the greenback. The EUR/USD pair extended its winning streak, trading around 1.1780, while the GBP/USD pair also gathered strength, trading near 1.3625. The Japanese Yen continued to gain against the dollar, with USD/JPY falling to its lowest since September 9th. U.S. Treasury yields continued their decline, with the 10-year yield falling over 2 basis points to 4.033%, hitting new 10-month lows, as investors braced for the Fed’s policy announcement. Bitcoin remained steady, consolidating recent gains near $115,000.

Looking Ahead 

The market is in a holding pattern, with all eyes now squarely on the Federal Reserve’s policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET. While a 25-basis-point rate cut is fully priced in, the Fed’s updated economic projections (the “dot plot”) and Powell’s tone regarding the future path of monetary policy will be the most critical drivers of market sentiment. Any deviation from the dovish expectations could spark significant volatility. Before the Fed, U.S. Retail Sales and Canadian CPI data will provide the final inputs.