Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mixed on Tuesday after a choppy session as investors digested a flurry of delayed economic data that painted a confusing picture of the U.S. economy. While the November Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a better-than-expected rebound in job creation, the unemployment rate ticked up to a four-year high of 4.6%. This, combined with a soft October retail sales print, reinforced the market’s view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq managed to snap its three-day losing streak, helped by a surge in Tesla to a new all-time high, but the Dow and S&P 500 both finished in the red. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields fell as dovish Fed bets held firm. Crude oil was the biggest loser, with WTI plunging below $55 a barrel to its lowest level since 2021. 

Key Takeaways 

• Mixed Session After Data Flurry: U.S. stocks finished mixed as traders digested a mixed bag of economic data, with the Nasdaq eking out a small gain while the S&P 500 fell for a third straight day. 
• Mixed Jobs Report Cements Rate Cut View: The delayed November NFP report showed a stronger-than-expected +64K job gain, but this was offset by a rise in the unemployment rate to a 4-year high of 4.6%, keeping dovish Fed bets intact. 
• Dollar Wavers, Euro Holds Firm Ahead of ECB: The U.S. Dollar is struggling for direction after the mixed jobs data. The Euro remains firm near 1.1750 as traders anticipate a hawkish hold from the ECB tomorrow.
• Crude Oil Plunges to 4-Year Low: WTI crude fell below $55 a barrel for the first time since February 2021, tumbling 2.7% on concerns about a global supply glut and slowing demand. 
• UK Inflation Miss Solidifies BoE Cut: The British pound crashed after a surprise downside miss in UK CPI data, solidifying expectations for a Bank of England rate cut this week. 
• Pound Plummets as UK CPI Miss Cements Bets for Tomorrow’s BoE Cut: The British Pound is the notable underperformer, tumbling after a surprise miss in UK inflation data solidified bets for a Bank of England rate cut at its meeting tomorrow.
• Goldman Sachs Sees Lower Bar for Future Fed Cuts: Goldman strategists believe Chair Powell’s recent cautious tone on the labor market signals a greater willingness to cut rates further in 2026. 
• Fed Chair Speculation Heats Up: The race to be the next Fed Chair is reportedly causing division in the White House, with Kevin Hassett’s candidacy facing some internal opposition. 
• BoJ December Hike Remains a Major Market Focus: The market continues to watch the Bank of Japan, with a rate hike at its meeting next week still seen as a major risk event for global markets and yen carry trades.
• Silver Hits New Record High: Silver continued its spectacular run, surging to a new all-time high above $65 an ounce, dramatically outperforming gold. Silver is also correcting after its incredible 120% year-to-date surge.
• Bitcoin Remains Weak, ETF Outflows Continue: The cryptocurrency market remains in a deep downtrend, with Bitcoin struggling to find a bid as sustained institutional ETF outflows and a lack of fresh catalysts keep sentiment suppressed. 
• All Eyes on a Huge Central Bank Day Tomorrow: The market is now in a holding pattern, looking ahead to a massive day of event risk on Thursday with policy decisions from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

Market Overview 

Wall Street was treated to its first official look at the U.S. labor market in over two months, and the result was a messy and confusing picture that did little to resolve the market’s underlying anxieties. Tuesday’s session was a classic example of a market struggling to find direction amidst a deluge of conflicting data. After weeks of flying blind, investors finally received the long-awaited November jobs report. The delayed November Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a better-than-expected headline job gain of +64,000, but this was coupled with a jump in the unemployment rate to a four-year high of 4.6% and soft wage growth. This, combined with a flat retail sales report for October, was enough to keep the market firmly in the “bad news is good news” camp, with traders confident that the Federal Reserve has all the justification it needs to cut interest rates next week. This dovish narrative is the primary driver of market sentiment, providing a floor for equities and putting significant pressure on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. 

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	-302.3	-0.0062	48114
S&P 500	-16.27	-0.0024	6800
Nasdaq	54.05	0.0023	23111
Russell 2000	-11.36	-0.0045	2519

However, the price action was far from a one-way street. While the Nasdaq was propped up by a record-breaking run in Tesla, the broader market was weaker, with defensive sectors like healthcare and communication services leading the declines. The most dramatic move was in the energy sector, which was hammered as crude oil prices plunged to a near five-year low on oversupply fears. The market is now looking ahead to a series of key central bank meetings, where a dovish turn from the Bank of England is now all but guaranteed after today’s surprisingly soft inflation data.

Economic Calendar 

With the U.S. government back online, the market is beginning to receive the backlog of delayed economic data. Today’s focus is on the UK inflation report and the upcoming central bank meetings. Data Released Yesterday / Overnight: 

• U.S. November NFP: A mixed report. The headline showed a stronger-than-expected +64K job gain, but the unemployment rate rose to a 4-year high of 4.6%. 
• U.S. Retail Sales (Oct): Was flat at 0.0%, missing the +0.1% forecast and signaling a cautious consumer. 
• Japan Exports (Nov): Surged +6.1% year-over-year, beating the 4.8% forecast, with exports to the U.S. rebounding for the first time in eight months. 
• Japan Core Machinery Orders (Oct): Exploded +12.5% year-over-year, a massive beat of the +3.6% consensus.
• UK CPI (Nov): A major downside surprise. Headline CPI fell to 3.2% y/y (vs. 3.5% exp), and the core rate also missed, solidifying bets for a BoE rate cut this week. 

Today’s Economic Calendar: 

• European Session: An extremely light calendar with only final Eurozone CPI and the German ZEW survey due. 
• U.S. Session: The main highlight is a speech from dovish Fed Governor Christopher Waller. 
• 13:15 GMT – Fed’s Waller (Dovish Voter) Speaks on the Economic Outlook.
• Other Fed Speakers: Williams (14:05 GMT) and Bostic (17:30 GMT).

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto

Precious metals saw some profit-taking after their recent spectacular run. February gold futures settled down slightly at $4,332.30 an ounce, while silver pulled back from its record high above $65. Silver, which has surged an incredible 120% year-to-date, is also seeing a pullback after hitting a record high near $66. Crude oil prices plunged to their lowest level in nearly five years, with WTI settling down 2.73% at $55.27 a barrel on concerns about a global supply glut and slowing demand.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-1.55	-0.0273	55.27
Gold	-2.9	-0.0007	4332.3
EUR/USD	-0.0006	-0.0005	1.1746
USD/JPY	-0.43	-0.0028	154.78
Bitcoin	-2500	-0.028	86748
10-Year Note Yield	-0.021	-0.005	0.04161

The U.S. dollar was on the back foot as dovish Fed bets held firm, while the pound was the main loser after a surprisingly soft inflation report. 

• GBP/USD: The Pound is the biggest loser in G10, tumbling towards 1.3315 after the dismal UK inflation data. The market is now pricing in a 92% chance of a December rate cut from the Bank of England tomorrow, a major headwind for Sterling. The pound crashed after the UK CPI report came in much softer than expected. The data has cemented expectations for a dovish rate cut from the Bank of England this week, sending the cable tumbling. 
• EUR/USD: The Euro is holding firm, trading near 1.1730. The pair is benefiting from broad U.S. Dollar weakness and a hawkish European Central Bank, with Morgan Stanley seeing a path to 1.30 long-term if the ECB maintains its stance. A massive cluster of options at 1.1700 ($1.7B) and 1.1750 ($1.4B) are sandwiching the current price. The euro is finding support from the view that the ECB is firmly on hold, while the Fed is poised to cut. 
• USD/JPY: The pair is trading with a negative bias above 155.00. The yen is outperforming, supported by rising expectations for a December rate hike from the Bank of Japan, a narrative that stands in stark contrast to the dovish pivot from the Fed. 

Cryptocurrencies: After a brief period of stability, the crypto market remains under pressure. Bitcoin is trading near the $87,000 level, struggling to find a bid as persistent outflows from U.S. spot ETFs and broader economic uncertainty weigh on sentiment.Bitcoin is down for a fourth straight day, with the market wiping out over $100 billion in value in a matter of days. U.S. Treasury yields fell for a second day as investors digested the mixed jobs report and solidified their bets on a forthcoming Fed rate cut. The benchmark 10-year yield slipped, reflecting the market’s increasingly dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve. 

Looking Ahead 

Today’s trading will be dominated by central bank commentary, with speeches from several Fed officials on the docket. The market’s focus is now firmly on the upcoming central bank meetings, with the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan both set to make pivotal policy decisions this week. With a dovish turn from the BoE now all but certain, and a hawkish hike from the BoJ a real possibility, traders should be prepared for a period of heightened volatility in the currency markets.

What to Watch Today

• Central Bank Thursday: The main event of the week is tomorrow. The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates, but the focus will be on the vote split and forward guidance. The European Central Bank is expected to hold, but the market will be watching to see if President Lagarde pushes back against rate hike speculation. 
• The Waller Speech: Fed Governor Waller has been a key dovish voice on the FOMC and is seen as a contender for the next Fed Chair. His speech today will be scrutinized for any clues on his willingness to support another rate cut in the face of the messy jobs data. 
• The “AI Bubble” Fears: The sharp sell-off in tech and warnings from prominent investors and CEOs have clearly resonated. The market will be highly sensitive to any further signs of weakness in this leadership group. 
• The Bitcoin Capitulation: The crash below $90,000 and the massive liquidations are a major capitulation event for crypto. Watch to see if dip-buyers emerge or if the fear of further losses and the bearish technicals keep sentiment suppressed.