Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks fell for a fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, with the technology sector once again leading the declines as concerns about an “AI bubble” intensify. The Nasdaq plunged 1.81%, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.16%, with both indices closing below their key 50-day moving averages. The selling pressure was triggered by a bearish report on Oracle, whose shares have now fallen over 15% since its earnings last week, raising serious questions about the profitability of massive AI spending across the tech industry. This risk-off mood sent investors seeking the safety of precious metals, with silver surging to another all-time high above $66 an ounce and gold climbing to a new record. Crude oil found a bid on renewed geopolitical tensions, while Bitcoin’s volatility continued with a sharp intraday reversal. 

Key Takeaways 

• Tech Rout Continues, S&P 500 Falls for 4th Day: The Nasdaq plunged 1.81% as the tech sell-off deepened, dragging the S&P 500 to its fourth straight daily loss and below its 50-day moving average. 
• AI Bubble Fears Intensify: A negative report on Oracle’s data center funding sent its stock tumbling and amplified fears about the sustainability of the AI spending boom, hitting the entire tech complex. 
• Central Bank “Super Thursday” Looms: The market is bracing for a packed 24 hours of central bank decisions from the Bank of England (cut expected), the ECB (hold expected), and the Bank of Japan (hike expected). 
• Silver and Gold Surge to New Records: Precious metals were the standout performers. Silver soared over 4% to a new all-time high above $66, while gold gained nearly 1% to settle at a record $4,373. 
• Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Continues: The crypto market remains extremely volatile. Bitcoin surged to $90,500 before crashing back towards $85,200 in a massive intraday swing that liquidated both longs and shorts. 
• Yen on Intervention Watch: The Japanese yen is trading cautiously as officials escalate their verbal intervention, with traders on high alert for physical intervention to support the currency. 
• The BoJ Hike Looms Large: The main event of the week remains the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday, where a historic rate hike is now widely anticipated, posing a major risk for global carry trades.
• Oil Bounces on Geopolitical Risk: WTI Crude Oil is bouncing after President Trump ordered a “complete blockade” of Venezuelan oil tankers, injecting fresh geopolitical risk into the market.
• All Eyes on U.S. CPI: The final major risk event of the year is today’s U.S. November CPI report, which will be critical in shaping the Fed’s outlook after weeks of data blackout. 

Market Overview

The “Santa Claus Rally” looks to be in serious jeopardy as Krampus has taken control of the market this week. The selling pressure that began late last week has intensified, with the S&P 500 now posting four consecutive daily losses. The primary source of the market’s anxiety is the technology sector. The narrative has shifted dramatically from unbridled AI euphoria to serious concerns about a speculative bubble. A bearish report on Oracle’s data center funding was the latest catalyst, sending a shockwave through the entire AI ecosystem and raising uncomfortable questions about the return on the trillions of dollars being invested. This micro-level fear is being compounded by macro-level uncertainty. The Nasdaq plunged 1.8%, and the S&P 500 closed below its key 50-day moving average for a second time, a significant bearish technical signal.

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	-228.29	-0.0047	47885
S&P 500	-78.76	-0.0116	6721
Nasdaq	-418.14	-0.0181	22693
Russell 2000	-27.01	-0.0107	2492

Today marks the beginning of a “Super Thursday” for central banks, with pivotal policy decisions from the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan all due within a 24-hour window. The market is expecting three different outcomes—a cut from the BoE, a hold from the ECB, and a hike from the BoJ. This divergence is a recipe for significant cross-asset volatility, particularly in the currency markets. The day’s main event, however, will be the release of the U.S. November CPI report. After weeks of flying blind, this will be the market’s first real look at the state of U.S. inflation and could be the final nail in the coffin for—or the last-minute savior of—the year-end rally. In the U.S., President Trump added to the geopolitical risk by announcing a “warrior dividend” for service members and confirming he will soon name a new, more dovish Fed Chair. European markets are opening with a defensive posture, taking their cue from the weak close on Wall Street.

Economic Calendar 

Today is a “Super Thursday” for central banks and U.S. data, a packed session that is likely to be the most volatile of the year. Data Released Earlier / Overnight: 

• New Zealand Q3 GDP: A significant upside surprise, with the economy growing more than expected, reducing the need for the RBNZ to remain dovish. 
• UK CPI (Nov): A surprise miss, with the headline rate falling to 3.2% (vs. 3.5% exp) and the core rate also dropping to 3.2%. The data has sent the Pound tumbling.

Today’s Economic Calendar: 

• European Session: The Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) will announce their final policy decisions of the year. The BoE is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps, while the ECB is expected to hold. 
• U.S. Session: The main event is the delayed U.S. November CPI report. The headline rate is expected to tick up to 3.1% y/y, with the core rate holding at 3.0%. 
• 12:00 GMT – Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision (Exp: 25bps cut to 3.75%). 
• 13:15 GMT – European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision (Exp: Hold at 2.00%). 
• 13:30 GMT – U.S. CPI (Nov) (Headline YoY exp: 3.1%, Core YoY exp: 3.0%).

Major Risk Event (Friday): 

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision: A rate hike is now widely anticipated, a potentially historic move for global markets. 

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto

The big story in commodities is the explosive rally in precious metals. Precious metals were the clear winners in the risk-off environment. Silver continued its unstoppable run, surging over 4% to a new all-time high of $66.88 an ounce and now up an incredible 130% year-to-date. Gold also gained nearly 1%, settling at a record high of $4,373.90. The rally is being fueled by a flight to safety and dovish Fed bets. In contrast, crude oil prices found a bid, with WTI rallying over 1% after President Trump ordered a “complete blockade” of Venezuelan oil tankers, injecting fresh geopolitical risk into the market. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.67	0.0121	55.94
Gold	41.6	0.0096	4373.9
EUR/USD	0.0003	0.0003	1.1749
USD/JPY	0.88	0.0057	155.6
Bitcoin	-700	-0.008	86554
10-Year Note Yield	0.002	0.0005	0.04148

The forex market is bracing for a period of extreme volatility as three major central banks are set to announce their policy decisions. 

• GBP/USD: The pair is oscillating in a narrow band around 1.3370 ahead of the BoE decision. A 25-basis-point cut is fully priced in, so the market’s reaction will hinge on the vote split and the bank’s forward guidance. 
• EUR/USD: The euro is wobbling near 1.1750 ahead of the ECB meeting and U.S. CPI. While the ECB is expected to hold, any hawkish surprises could send the single currency higher.The pair is caught in a range, with massive options expiries at 1.1700 ($1.4B) and 1.1750 ($3.0B) sandwiching the current price and likely to contain the action ahead of the ECB decision.
• USD/JPY: The yen remains depressed near the weekly lows, with the pair trading near 156.00. The market is awaiting the BoJ’s decision on Friday, but in the meantime, the divergent policy paths between a hawkish BoJ and a dovish Fed should cap the pair’s upside. A massive $3.2B options expiry at the 156.00 level provides a key resistance point.

Cryptocurrencies: The crypto market remains in a state of extreme volatility. Bitcoin experienced a massive intraday swing, first surging to $90,500 before crashing back to $85,200, wiping out both long and short positions. The market is struggling to find a bottom as the broader risk-off mood and concerns about tightening global liquidity weigh on sentiment. The market has been rattled by news that a major whale has fully liquidated their $1.3 billion stack. U.S. Treasury yields were flat as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of today’s key inflation data. The benchmark 10-year yield held steady around 4.15%. 

Looking Ahead 

The next 24 hours are packed with the most significant market-moving events of the year. The central bank decisions from the BoE and ECB, followed by the U.S. CPI report, will set the tone for the remainder of the year. The real wild card, however, is the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday. A historic rate hike could trigger a massive unwinding of the yen carry trade, a scenario that would have major ripple effects across all asset classes. Traders should be prepared for a period of extreme volatility as the last big trade of the year plays out.

What to Watch Today

• The Central Bank Gauntlet: This is the last big trade of the year. The BoE is expected to cut, but the vote split will be key. The ECB is expected to hold, but the market will be watching to see if President Lagarde pushes back against rate hike speculation. These decisions, along with the BoJ meeting tomorrow, will create significant volatility. 
• The “Messy” CPI Report: This is another major event. With October’s data missing, this report will be the market’s only look at U.S. inflation before year-end. A hot number would challenge the dovish Fed narrative, while a soft print would give the bulls the final green light. 
• The AI Bubble Fears: The sharp sell-off in tech and the negative Oracle news have clearly resonated. The market will be highly sensitive to any further signs of weakness in this leadership group. 
• The Bitcoin Capitulation: The massive whale liquidation and the violent intraday swings are a major capitulation event for crypto. Watch to see if dip-buyers emerge around the $85,000 level or if the fear of further losses keeps sentiment suppressed.