Closing Recap

 U.S. stocks staged a late recovery to finish mixed, led by a rebound in the Nasdaq, while Treasury yields fell sharply amid persistent economic uncertainty and ahead of today’s key tariff announcement; gold eased slightly after hitting early highs. 

Key Takeaways 

• Late Rally, Mixed Finish: Equities recovered from early weakness, with the Nasdaq leading gains, while the Dow finished slightly lower and small caps were flat. 
• Extreme Fear Persists: Market sentiment remains deeply negative (Fear & Greed Index at 18), driven by tariff uncertainty and economic worries. 
• Inflation Signal from ISM: While ISM Manufacturing contracted, the significant jump in the Prices Paid component stoked inflation concerns. 
• JOLTS In-Line, GDPNow Weakens: Job openings data was largely ignored, but a sharp downward revision to the Atlanta Fed’s GDP. 
• Gold Pauses Near Records: Gold futures retreated slightly after hitting new highs earlier, capping a stellar +18.5% Q1 gain driven by safe-haven flows. 
• Yields Plunge: Treasury yields dropped significantly as investors sought safety amid the uncertainty. 
• Oil Slips: Crude oil prices finished slightly lower after a volatile session, caught between conflicting tariff impact narratives. 

Market Overview

Another volatile session unfolded for U.S. equities, starting with weakness that persisted through the morning. Relatively in-line economic data, such as the JOLTS job openings report and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, did little to shift the cautious mood. The ISM Manufacturing report, however, offered a more mixed and ultimately negative signal; while the headline index showed contraction, the sharp rise in the Prices Paid component reignited inflation anxieties, weighing on sentiment. This backdrop of uncertainty kept the Fear & Greed Index firmly planted in “Extreme Fear” territory, a stark contrast to the “Greed” seen a year ago. The partisan divide on inflation expectations further highlights the current confusion fueling market jitters. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-11.8	-0.0003	41989
S&P 500	21.22	0.0038	5633
Nasdaq	150.6	0.0087	17449
Russell 2000	0.33	0.0002	2012

Despite the pervasive gloom, stocks managed a comeback in the latter part of the session, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Market breadth improved, favoring advancers by the close. However, small caps continued to lag, finishing flat on the day. The late rally wasn’t enough to erase the memory of a difficult Q1, where the S&P 500 lagged global stocks significantly. The standout performer of Q1 was undoubtedly gold, which notched its best quarter since 1986 on powerful safe-haven demand. Today’s trading action underscores the market’s intense focus on today’s anticipated tariff announcements from President Trump.

Economic Data

Economic data today presented a mixed bag, with stable job openings offset by contracting manufacturing activity with an inflationary component, positive construction spending, and a worrying downgrade to a key GDP forecast. 

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1 Forecast): Revised sharply lower to -3.7% (annualized rate) from -2.8% previously, following today’s construction and ISM data. This is a significant concern for near-term growth expectations. 
• JOLTS Job Openings (Feb): Fell slightly to 7.568 million from 7.762 million in January, roughly in line with the 7.616 million estimate. Suggests labor demand is cooling but remains elevated. 
• S&P Global US Mfg PMI (Mar Final): Revised slightly higher to 50.2 from the 49.8 flash reading, but down from 52.7 in February. Remained barely in expansionary territory. 
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar): Dropped to 49.0, indicating contraction, below the 49.5 consensus and February’s 50.3. Critically, the Prices Paid index jumped significantly to 69.4 (from 62.4), signaling rising input costs. 
• New Orders (45.2) and Employment (44.7) components also weakened. Construction Spending (Feb): Increased +0.7%, beating the +0.3% consensus and reversing January’s revised -0.5% decline. Driven primarily by private construction (+0.9%). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold futures failed to sustain early gains that saw new record spot prices, ultimately settling down 0.14% near $3,146/oz. While profit-taking or pre-tariff announcement caution may have played a role, the underlying safe-haven bid remains strong due to geopolitical risks (Gaza, Ukraine) and trade war fears, evidenced by the stellar 18.5% Q1 gain. Crude oil (WTI) also experienced a volatile session, finishing down 0.39% at $71.20/bbl. The market is grappling with conflicting tariff narratives – potential demand destruction versus supply disruptions from targeted nations like Venezuela or Iran. News that OPEC+ is likely sticking to its output increase plan added another layer. The U.S. dollar appeared slightly firmer overall, while Treasury yields plunged, with the 10-year yield falling nearly 9 basis points to around 4.156% in a clear flight to safety.

Asset	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	-0.27	71.2
Brent	-0.28	74.49
Gold	-4.3	3146
EUR/USD	-0.0028	1.0789
USD/JPY	-0.62	149.33
10-Year Note	-0.089	0.04156

Looking Ahead 

All market attention is now squarely focused on President Trump’s anticipated announcement regarding reciprocal tariffs today (April 2nd). The specifics and tone of this announcement are expected to be the primary driver of market action. Beyond tariffs, the market will continue to digest economic data, with ADP private payrolls due Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payrolls report looming on Friday. The significant drop in the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast will also likely keep growth concerns elevated.