Closing Recap

U.S. stocks are set for a lower open, pulling back from Friday’s tech-led sell-off as investors return from the holiday weekend to face key manufacturing data and ongoing concerns about Fed independence; gold is hitting new all-time highs, while the dollar is mixed and Treasury yields are rising. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Point to Cautious Start: Equities indicate a negative open as U.S. markets resume trading after the Labor Day holiday, following a tech-driven decline on Friday. 
• Focus on ISM Manufacturing & Jobs Data: The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI today and the official jobs report on Friday are the pivotal data points this week for gauging economic health. 
• Gold Surges to Record Highs: Gold prices are up strongly, surpassing $3,500/oz to new all-time highs, driven by Fed rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and safe-haven demand. 
• Fed Independence Concerns Linger: The market remains on edge over President Trump’s attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, a factor seen as pressuring the U.S. dollar.
• Global Markets Mixed: European markets opened slightly lower, while Asian markets were mixed overnight as China’s AI-led surge continues to support regional sentiment. 
• Oil & Crypto Weaken: Crude oil prices are trading higher for the second day straight, and Bitcoin is consolidating above $109k, facing some institutional selling pressure. 
• UK Yields Surge, Pound Falls: A sharp rise in UK long-dated bond yields is pressuring the British Pound. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets are poised for a lower open as traders return from the long Labor Day weekend, with sentiment weighed down by the sharp technology-led sell-off that concluded last week. The market is entering a crucial week for economic data, with all eyes on today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI report and, more importantly, Friday’s August Nonfarm Payrolls report. These data points will be critical in determining whether the Federal Reserve proceeds with an interest rate cut at its September 16-17 meeting, a move markets are increasingly pricing in following last month’s shockingly weak jobs figures and signs of a slowing economy.

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-92.02	-0.002	45544.88
S&P 500	-41.6	-0.0064	6460.26
Nasdaq	-249.61	-0.0115	21455.55
DAX (Germany)	-125.66	-0.0052	23911.67
FTSE 100 (UK)	-25.19	-0.0027	9171.15

The backdrop for markets remains complex. Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve persist, following the Trump administration’s unprecedented attempt to remove a Fed governor, which continues to exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. This weakness in the greenback, combined with expectations of Fed easing and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, has propelled gold prices to new all-time highs above $3,500 per ounce. 

Global markets are showing a mixed picture this morning. European indices opened slightly in the red, with traders awaiting key Eurozone inflation data. In Asia, markets were varied, with China’s AI-driven rally continuing to provide a pocket of strength. In the UK, a sharp surge in long-dated government bond (gilt) yields to multi-decade highs is creating significant pressure on the British Pound and broader risk sentiment.

Economic Calendar: 

The U.S. economic calendar is highlighted by the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key gauge of factory activity. 

• Today’s Major U.S. Releases: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August (Expected: 49.0, Prior: 48.0) 
• Major European Releases (Today): Eurozone Flash CPI for August (Expected: 2.0% y/y, Prior: 2.0%) 

Key This Week: 

• Speeches from Fed’s Musalem, Goolsbee, and Williams. 
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for August (Friday). 
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (Thursday). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices have surged to new all-time highs, with spot gold rising as much as 0.9% to over $3,508 per ounce before paring gains slightly. The rally is driven by strong expectations for Fed rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and its appeal as a safe haven amid policy uncertainty. Crude oil prices are trading higher, with WTI up 1.9% near $65.22/bbl, finding support from broader market stability and ongoing geopolitical tensions. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	1.21	USD/bbl	65.22
Brent	0.56	USD/bbl	68.71
Gold	36.5	USD/oz	3552.6
EUR/USD	-0.0032	USD	1.168
USD/JPY	1.14	JPY	148.32
10-Year Note	0.04	%	0.04273
Dollar Index	0.23	Points	98

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is under pressure, trading down 0.23% near 98.00, as the Euro and other currencies gain. The British Pound, however, is falling sharply (-0.7%) on the back of surging UK bond yields. U.S. Treasury yields are up, with the 10-year yield climbing about 4 basis points to 4.273%, possibly on spillover from the UK gilt market or positioning ahead of the ISM data. Bitcoin is consolidating above $109,000 but faces institutional selling pressure.

Looking Ahead 

The market will be laser-focused on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI report released this morning. A reading that significantly deviates from expectations could cause substantial volatility, as it will be a key input for the Fed’s decision-making process. The primary event for the week remains Friday’s August jobs report. In the interim, commentary from the slate of Fed speakers this week will be closely watched for any hints about their policy leanings following the recent turmoil surrounding the central bank’s independence.