Closing Recap

U.S. stocks snapped a four-day losing streak on Wednesday as the major indices opened higher, turned negative by the afternoon, but managed to claw back into the green by the close. The real action happened after the bell, when semiconductor giant Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter, easily beating expectations and providing blowout guidance. The strong results sent Nvidia shares soaring in after-hours trading and provided a much-needed shot of adrenaline to the entire AI sector. Before the report, however, the market mood was cautious. 

The U.S. dollar climbed to a five-month high as FOMC minutes and the cancellation of the October jobs report caused traders to slash bets on a December Fed rate cut. This dollar strength pushed EUR/USD to a two-week low. Crude oil tumbled over 2% on oversupply concerns, while gold also edged higher. The crypto market’s woes continued, with Bitcoin briefly dipping below $89,000 for the first time since April.

Key Takeaways 

• Nvidia Beats and Raises, Sparking Tech Rally: Nvidia reported stellar Q3 earnings and strong Q4 guidance after the bell, sending its stock soaring and providing a major boost to the embattled AI and semiconductor sectors. 
• Stocks Snap 4-Day Losing Streak: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both eked out modest gains in a choppy session ahead of the Nvidia report, ending a four-day slide. 
• FOMC Minutes and Jobs Data Uncertainty Hit Rate Cut Bets: The probability of a December Fed rate cut plunged to just 33% after hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes and news that the October jobs report will not be released. 
• Dollar Surges to 5-Month High: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rallied to its highest level in five months as rate cut expectations diminished, putting significant pressure on major currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. 
• Bitcoin Plunges to 7-Month Low: The crypto crash deepened, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $89,000 to its lowest level since April, extending the market cap wipeout to over $1 trillion since early October. 
• Gold Finds a Floor, But Remains Volatile: After a historic correction, Gold is finding some stability and has bounced from the  BRN $4,000, but it remains volatile as traders weigh the competing forces of a dovish Fed narrative against profit-taking activity.
• Yen Crumbles Past 157, Intervention Risks Soar: The Japanese yen continued its freefall, with USD/JPY surging past 157 as the market prices in a massive >¥20 trillion stimulus package and a dovish Bank of Japan, despite escalating verbal intervention. The markets ignored increasingly forceful verbal intervention from Japanese officials. 
• Oil Prices Slump on Oversupply Fears: WTI Crude Oil continued its slide, falling over 2% after a bearish U.S. inventory report and an Axios report of a potential U.S.-Russia plan to end the war in Ukraine.
• Delayed September NFP Looms: After weeks of waiting, the market will finally get its first piece of official U.S. labor market data with the release of the delayed September NFP report on Thursday. 

Market Overview

It was another day of whiplash on Wall Street, and another session that underscored the market’s deep divisions. Wednesday’s session was all about one thing: Nvidia. For most of the day, the market was stuck in a nervous holding pattern, chopping back and forth as traders anxiously awaited what was billed as a “make-or-break” report for the entire AI trade. The underlying sentiment was fragile, underscored by a four-day losing streak and persistent concerns about stretched tech valuations. The macroeconomic environment added to the uncertainty. The release of the FOMC minutes from the October meeting revealed a divided committee, with several members expressing concern that cutting rates could reignite inflation.

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	47.03	0.001	46138
S&P 500	24.87	0.0038	6642
Nasdaq	131.38	0.0059	22564
Russell 2000	-0.84	-0.0004	2347

This, combined with a bombshell announcement from the BLS that the October jobs report would be cancelled and rolled into the November data (to be released after the next Fed meeting), caused a dramatic repricing of Fed expectations. The odds of a December cut collapsed from over 50% to just 33%, sending the U.S. dollar to a five-month high. 

However, the post-market release of Nvidia’s earnings completely changed the narrative. The company’s spectacular results and incredibly bullish guidance, with CEO Jensen Huang noting demand is “off the charts,” provided a powerful fundamental reason for the market to rally. The strong report has the potential to act as a circuit breaker for the recent tech sell-off, though the broader market remains caught between the micro-level bullishness of AI and a macro-level fear that a hawkish Fed and an uncertain economy will limit the upside.

Economic Calendar 

With the U.S. government now reopened, the market is bracing for a flood of delayed data. The main event today is the long-awaited September jobs report. Data Released Yesterday / Overnight: 

• FOMC Meeting Minutes (Oct 28-29): Showed a divided committee, with several members opposing the October rate cut due to concerns that progress on inflation had stalled. 
• U.S. Trade Balance (Aug): A delayed release showed the trade deficit shrank by 24% to $59.6 billion. 
• U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 14): Fell -5.2% as the average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.37%. 

Today’s Economic Calendar: 

• European Session: An extremely light calendar with only low-tier data releases. 
• U.S. Session: All eyes are on the delayed U.S. September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The consensus is for a weak print of +54,000 jobs. Given the report’s age, the market reaction is uncertain, but a significant deviation from expectations could still spark volatility. Weekly Jobless Claims will also be released. 
• A heavy slate of Fed speakers including Goolsbee, Cook, and Hammack.

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto

Gold prices gained for a second day, with December futures settling up 0.4% at $4,082.80 an ounce. The metal is finding support as a safe haven amidst the tech sell-off, though gains were pared as the U.S. dollar surged. Crude oil prices fell sharply, with WTI settling down over 2% at $59.44 a barrel. The decline was driven by ongoing oversupply concerns and a bearish Axios report suggesting a U.S. proposal to end the war in Ukraine could be in the works. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-1.3	-0.0214	59.44
Gold	16.3	0.004	4082.8
EUR/USD	-0.0048	-0.0041	1.1532
USD/JPY	1.28	0.0083	156.78
Bitcoin	-2000	-0.022	90202
10-Year Note Yield	-0.019	-0.0046	0.04104

The U.S. dollar surged to a five-month high as the market aggressively priced out the odds of a December Fed rate cut, putting significant pressure on its G10 counterparts. 

• EUR/USD: The pair extended its losing streak to a fifth day, sliding to a two-week low near the key 1.1500 psychological level. The single currency is being hit hard by the broad-based strength of the U.S. dollar. Massive options expiries today at 1.1500 ($3.0B) and 1.1600 ($2.1B) define a key battleground.
• GBP/USD: The pound also came under heavy selling pressure, falling for a fourth consecutive day towards the 1.3060 region. Dovish expectations for the Bank of England, combined with the hawkish repricing of the Fed, are creating a powerful downdraft for the cable. 
• USD/JPY: The yen’s slide has turned into a freefall, with the pair blasting through 157.00 to hit a new multi-month high. The market is completely ignoring increasingly sharp verbal intervention from Japanese officials, focusing instead on the widening policy divergence and expectations of a massive new fiscal stimulus package in Japan. 

Cryptocurrencies: The crypto crash continued, with Bitcoin plunging to its lowest level in seven months. The leading cryptocurrency briefly fell below $89,000 before staging a modest late-day recovery to close just above $90,000. The market has now lost over $1 trillion in value since early October, as lofty AI valuations and diminishing hopes for Fed rate cuts sour sentiment towards risk assets. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower as investors sought the safety of government bonds amidst the equity market turmoil and data uncertainty. The benchmark 10-year yield fell to around 4.10%. 

Looking Ahead 

The focus will shift to the release of the long-awaited September NFP report. While the data is stale, it represents the first piece of hard economic evidence the market has received in weeks. A major surprise in either direction could trigger significant volatility as traders scramble to adjust their outlooks for the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

What to Watch

• The Nvidia Afterglow: Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings have provided a powerful shot of adrenaline to the tech sector. The key question is whether this is enough to reignite the broader market rally or if the underlying valuation and economic concerns will reassert themselves. 
• The Long-Awaited NFP Report: This is the main event. While the data is for September and therefore “stale,” it is the first official read on the U.S. labor market in nearly two months. A significant deviation from the +50K forecast could trigger major volatility as the market finally gets a concrete data point to work with. 
• The Yen’s Tipping Point: USD/JPY’s break above 157 is a major technical development. With Japanese officials escalating their verbal warnings, the risk of physical FX intervention is now significantly elevated, making this a very dangerous pair to trade. 
• The Bitcoin Capitulation: The crash below $90,000 and the subsequent sharp rebound from “Extreme Fear” is a classic capitulation setup. Traders will be watching to see if this marks a durable bottom or if another wave of selling emerges.