Closing Recap 

The US Dollar extended its decline for a fifth consecutive week, trading near three-year lows as persistent US economic concerns, a cautious Federal Reserve, and lingering tariff tensions weighed heavily on the currency. Looking ahead, the market faces a “macro minefield”. The week is densely packed with potential catalysts, including a deluge of crucial economic data releases.

Looking Ahead 

The week ahead promises significant potential for market volatility, characterized by a dense economic calendar, a barrage of central bank commentary, and the ongoing Q1 earnings season unfolding against a backdrop of persistent trade tensions and rising recession fears. Key flash PMI data across the globe on Tuesday/Wednesday will offer crucial real-time economic health checks, while important US reports on housing, durable goods, and consumer sentiment will further shape the growth outlook. The sheer volume of scheduled speeches from Fed, ECB, and BoE officials guarantees headline risk and potential shifts in policy expectations. With the US Dollar already weak and market sentiment leaning heavily cautious, any surprises in the data or shifts in central bank tone could trigger sharp market reactions. Traders will need to navigate this complex mix of lagging and leading indicators, earnings guidance, and central bank signaling, all while keeping an eye on any new developments on the tariff front.

Index Futures (Pre-Market Mon)	Last Level	Change	Change (%)
S&P Futures	5261.5	-51.25	-0.0096
Dow Futures	38972	-357	-0.0091
Nasdaq Futures	18179.5	-201.25	-0.0109
Russell 2000 Futures	1872.3	-17.3	-0.0092

Key Takeaways 

• Dollar Rout Persists: The US Dollar Index (DXY) marked its fifth straight losing week, struggling below the key 100.00 level amid broad weakness. 
• Major FX Pairs Advance vs USD: EUR/USD pushed towards 1.14, GBP/USD neared 1.33, USD/JPY fell towards 142, and AUD/USD targeted yearly highs above 0.64. 
• Gold Shines Bright: Gold continued its ascent (futures near $3400 early Monday), driven by Dollar weakness and safe-haven demand amid trade uncertainties and receiving record ETF inflows. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Global PMIs: Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Tue/Wed) across the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, and Australia will provide crucial economic health updates. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Packed US Calendar: Key US data includes Leading Index, New/Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, regional Fed surveys, and final Michigan Sentiment. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Central Bank Overload: Numerous speakers from the Fed (Goolsbee, Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Kugler, Waller, Hammack), ECB (Lagarde, Knot, De Guindos, Lane, Cipollone, Nagel, Buch), and BoE (Bailey, Pill, Breeden, Lombardelli, Greene) are scheduled, potentially driving volatility. 
• Week Ahead Focus – PBoC & BI Decisions: The People’s Bank of China sets Loan Prime Rates (Mon), and Bank Indonesia meets (Wed). 

Market Overview

The dominant theme remains the pronounced weakness of the US Dollar, which notched its fifth consecutive weekly decline, languishing near three-year lows. This sustained pressure stems from a confluence of factors: growing concerns about the US economic trajectory (with recession probability estimates rising), a Federal Reserve perceived as cautiously data-dependent (“higher-for-longer” stance facing scrutiny), and the persistent overhang of trade tariff uncertainties. The market seems increasingly focused on the Dollar’s vulnerabilities rather than solely on the relative fundamentals of other currencies. 

This Dollar weakness fueled significant gains in major currency pairs. The Euro (EUR/USD) solidified its position near the 1.14 handle, the British Pound (GBP/USD) climbed close to the psychologically important 1.33 level, and the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) revisited highs above 0.64. Even the Japanese Yen strengthened against the Dollar (USD/JPY falling towards 142). Gold continued its impressive rally, benefiting from both the weaker Dollar and its safe-haven appeal, with futures pushing towards $3400 early Monday. While Q1 earnings season rolls on, attention is intensely focused on forward guidance from companies navigating this uncertain landscape, with bellwethers like Tesla and Alphabet facing particular scrutiny after recent underperformance. The narrative of a potential US recession is gaining traction, further pressuring the Dollar and keeping risk assets on edge.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of April 21st) 

MON (Apr 21): 

• PBoC Loan Prime Rate (LPR): Expected to hold 1Y at 3.1%, 5Y at 3.6%. Watched for policy signals amidst trade tensions. 
• Holiday Note: Thin liquidity expected due to Easter Monday in many centres. 

TUE (Apr 22): 

• Flash PMIs (Apr – JP, AU, FR, DE, EZ, UK, US): Key focus. Manufacturing expected to remain weak globally, services sector resilience tested, especially with rising costs/taxes potentially hitting UK services. 
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr): Gauge of investor confidence. 
• US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr): Regional activity survey. 

WED (Apr 23): 

• Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate Decision: Expected to hold rates at 5.75%. 
• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Mar): Fiscal health indicator. 
• US New Home Sales (Mar): Housing market health. 
• Fed Beige Book: Anecdotal survey of economic conditions across Fed districts. 

THU (Apr 24): 

• German IFO Business Climate (Apr): Important gauge of German business sentiment. 
• US Durable Goods Orders (Mar): Key indicator of business investment intentions. 
• US Existing Home Sales (Mar): Housing market turnover. 
• US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: Labor market indicator. 
• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Mar): Broad measure of economic activity. 

FRI (Apr 25): 

• Tokyo CPI (Apr): Inflation reading for Japan’s capital. 
• UK Retail Sales (Mar): Consumer spending data; expected to show resilience after strong Jan/Feb but facing headwinds from April price/tax hikes. 
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr): Consumer sentiment gauge. 
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr – Final): Final read on consumer mood and inflation expectations. 
• Holiday Note: ANZAC Day closure in Australia/New Zealand impacts liquidity.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Heading into the new week, Gold remains a standout performer, pushing towards fresh highs near $3400 early Monday, buoyed by pervasive US Dollar weakness and ongoing safe-haven flows amidst trade uncertainties. Crude oil futures started the week softer, dipping below $64 (WTI), potentially reflecting ongoing global growth concerns despite recent geopolitical tensions. The currency landscape continues to be defined by the struggling Greenback, with the DXY near three-year lows below 99. Consequently, the Euro is trading firmly above 1.15, the Pound tests levels above 1.33, and the Aussie pushes higher near 0.64. The Japanese Yen also reflects Dollar weakness, with USD/JPY trading near 140.50. US Treasury yields (based on futures) appear relatively stable/slightly lower early Monday, digesting the prior week’s volatility and awaiting fresh data/Fed speak.

Asset (Futures/Spot)	Last Level	Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	63.58	-1.1	USD/bbl (-1.70%)
Gold	3405	76.6	USD/oz (+2.30%)
EUR/USD	1.1538	0.0147	Rate (+1.29%)
USD/JPY	140.561	-1.589	Rate (-1.12%)
10 Yr T-Note Futures	111.13	-0.05	Price (-0.04%)