Closing Recap (Week Ending November 21) 

U.S. stocks staged a late-week rally on Friday, driven by dovish Federal Reserve commentary and positive semiconductor news, but it wasn’t enough to erase losses for the week as major indices finished in negative territory. In currency markets, the US Dollar weakened against the Japanese Yen as BoJ Governor Ueda signaled a potential rate hike, while EUR/USD tested 1.1500. Gold rose slightly on Friday but fell for the week, oil dropped to one-month lows on peace deal hopes, and Bitcoin slumped to its lowest level since April. 

Key Takeaways

• Stocks Post Weekly Losses Despite Friday Bounce: The S&P 500 (-1.95%), Nasdaq (-2.74%), and Dow (-1.91%) all recorded weekly declines, snapping recent win streaks. Friday saw a rebound led by small caps (Russell 2000 +2.80% daily) and interest-rate sensitive sectors.
•  Fed Rate Cut Odds Spike: Dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams and Governor Miran pushed the probability of a December rate cut from 27% to 70% in 24 hours. 
• Bitcoin Plunges into Bear Market: The crypto sector faced a brutal washout, with Bitcoin dropping to its lowest level since April (below $81k) and down over 30% from its October highs. The “Fear and Greed” index has hit historic lows following massive liquidations.
• Oil Falls on Peace Deal Hopes: Crude oil prices fell ~3% for the week to one-month lows as the US pushed for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, potentially boosting global supply. 
• Geopolitics Weighs on Commodities: Oil prices fell roughly 3% for the week, settling at one-month lows on reports of a potential U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Gold also finished the week lower, struggling to hold the $4,100 level amid the “risk-on” Friday rally.
• Japan Unveils Massive Stimulus, Yen Weakens: Japan’s new Prime Minister announced a ¥21.3 trillion ($135B) stimulus package. However, the Yen remains under pressure as the BoJ sends mixed signals on rate hikes, prompting verbal intervention warnings as USD/JPY nears 158.00.
• Dollar Weakens vs. Yen: The US Dollar fell against the Yen after BoJ Governor Ueda issued his strongest signal yet regarding a December rate hike. 
• Data Blackout Continues: The BLS confirmed there will be NO October CPI report. The next inflation update will be the November report released on December 18, leaving the Fed “flying blind” into the December 10 meeting. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: A holiday-shortened week (Thanksgiving) puts a spotlight on US PCE Inflation (Wed), the RBNZ Rate Decision (Wed), and the UK Budget (Wed).

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market faces a holiday-shortened week with lower liquidity and a critical data void. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that the October CPI report has been canceled and will not be released, meaning investors must fly blind on consumer price data until the November report in mid-December. This places immense importance on Wednesday’s PCE Price Index release, which becomes the primary inflation gauge for the Fed ahead of its December meeting. A soft PCE print could cement the revived hopes for a December cut. It will be the definitive data point for the Fed’s December decision, occurring in a holiday-shortened week that typically sees lower liquidity and higher volatility.

Internationally, investors will also be monitoring the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decides on rates Wednesday, while the UK Chancellor presents the Budget on the same day, a potential volatility event for the pound. Eurozone inflation data and Japanese Tokyo CPI later in the week will also be watched. Geopolitical developments remain a wildcard, with a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal and lingering trade tensions in the background.

The disconnect between the recent equity market weakness (weekly losses) and the Friday rally suggests a market still searching for direction, caught between dovish Fed hopes and valuations concerns. The crypto market’s struggle to find a bottom adds another layer of risk-off sentiment to the background.

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets finished a volatile week on a high note, but the late rally couldn’t salvage the week’s overall performance. Major indices posted their longest streak of weekly losses since March, with the Nasdaq falling for a third straight week and the Russell 2000 for a fourth. Friday’s turnaround was sparked by dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who suggested interest rate cuts are still possible “in the near term.” This view was reinforced by Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who advocated for being “forecast-dependent” rather than data-dependent. Consequently, market odds for a December rate cut surged from 27% to 70% in a single day. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	46245	493.3	0.0108	-0.0191
S&P 500	6603	64.31	0.0098	-0.0195
Nasdaq	22273	195.04	0.0088	-0.0274
Russell 2000	2369	64.48	0.028	-0.0078

Sector-wise, technology and semiconductors were under pressure for much of the week due to AI valuation concerns, but they rebounded late Friday on reports that the White House might allow Nvidia to sell advanced chips to China. Interest-rate sensitive sectors like homebuilders and small caps (IWM) led the charge higher on Friday. In the crypto space, Bitcoin suffered a significant drawdown, hitting its lowest levels since April and falling more than 30% from its October peak of over $126,000. This weakness persisted even as traditional risk assets bounced, highlighting a divergence in sentiment.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of November 24th) 

The coming week is shortened by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (Thursday), which typically leads to thin liquidity and exacerbated moves. However, the calendar is packed with delayed U.S. data, a crucial UK budget, and a central bank decision from New Zealand.

MON (Nov 24): 

• ECB President Lagarde Speech: Watched for policy clues amid a quiet data day. Traders will look for any hints regarding a December cut.

TUE (Nov 25): 

• US Retail Sales (Sep) [Delayed]: Key gauge of consumer spending strength. 
• US PPI (Sep) [Delayed]: Producer price inflation data. 

WED (Nov 26): 

• US PCE Price Index (Sep) [Delayed] & (Q3): CRITICAL release. With no Oct CPI, this is the key inflation input for the Fed’s Dec decision. 
• US GDP (Q3 – Second Estimate): Updated look at economic growth.
• RBNZ Rate Decision: Expected to cut rates to 2.25% from 2.50%. 
• UK Autumn Budget: Chancellor Reeves presents a high-stakes budget to close a £20bn fiscal gap. This is a major risk event for GBP. Aggressive tax hikes could stall growth, while too much borrowing could spike Gilt yields.
• Australian CPI (Oct): Monthly inflation indicator. A key inflation reading that will shape the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.

THU (Nov 27): 

• US Thanksgiving Holiday: US Markets Closed. Liquidity globally will be very thin.

FRI (Nov 28): 

• Japanese Tokyo CPI (Nov): A critical leading indicator for Japanese inflation (Consensus 2.8%). A hot number could pressure the BoJ to hike in December to defend the Yen.
• US Early Close: U.S. markets close early (1:00 PM ET).
• Eurozone CPI (Nov Prelim): Crucial for determining if the ECB cuts in December. 
• Canadian GDP (Q3): Expected to show a contraction (-1.6% annualized), potentially forcing the BoC to be more dovish.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

In commodities, the prospect of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine sent shivers through the energy markets. Gold prices rose slightly on Friday, nearly $20 to settle at $4,079.50/oz, but finished the week down 0.3% as traders weighed Fed uncertainty. The metal remains supported by central bank buying and its appeal in a low-rate environment, despite the weekly dip. The metal is caught in a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand due to the U.S. shutdown aftermath and downward pressure from a stronger dollar. Crude oil prices fell for the week, with WTI settling at $58.06/bbl (-3% weekly), hitting one-month lows. The decline was driven by reports that the US is pushing for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which could increase global supply, outweighing OPEC+ support, as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	58.06	-0.94	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	62.56	-0.82	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	4079.5	19.5	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1506	-0.0021	Rate
USD/JPY	156.51	-0.95	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04063	-0.00043	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	$85,129	1.74%	USD

The currency markets were defined by a push-pull dynamic between risk appetite and central bank divergence. 

• USD/JPY: In currency markets, the USD/JPY pair fell 0.95% on Friday to 156.51 as the US Dollar weakened against the Yen. This followed hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who signaled a December rate hike is on the table. However, on a weekly basis the pair continued its march higher, closing the week up 1.22% near 156.51. The Yen is being crushed by the disparity between U.S. yields and the BoJ’s slow-moving policy, despite a massive new fiscal stimulus package from Tokyo. Verbal interventions intensified as the pair reached 157.88 mid-week; the 158-160 zone is now seen as the “danger zone” for actual intervention. 
• EUR/USD: The pair finished the week down nearly 1% at 1.1506, pressured by the Fed’s relative hawkishness compared to the ECB. However, it held the 1.1500 level, aided by Friday’s risk-on flows. 
• GBP/USD: Sterling finished the week down 0.57%, hovering near 1.3092. Traders are nervously awaiting next Wednesday’s UK budget, which is expected to include tax changes to plug a £20bn fiscal gap.

The Crypto market is in full capitulation mode. Bitcoin has crashed below $81,000, erasing all gains for 2025 and down 30% from its October peak. The sell-off was exacerbated by massive leveraged liquidations and ETF outflows, signaling that the asset class has decoupled from the “risk-on” equities trade for the moment. U.S. Treasury yields fell to three-week lows on Friday, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.063% as markets aggressively repriced for a December Fed rate cut.

What to Watch Next Week

• The Missing CPI & The Fed’s “Blind” Flight: The biggest news is what won’t happen. The BLS confirmed no October CPI report will be released. This means the Fed will make its December 10 decision without crucial inflation data. This elevates the importance of next week’s PCE (if released) and Retail Sales data. A soft Retail Sales print would validate the 70% odds of a December cut; a hot print could crash those odds. 
• Sterling’s Moment of Truth: Wednesday’s UK Budget is a make-or-break moment for the Pound. The market is wary of tax hikes on capital gains or property. If the budget is seen as anti-growth, GBP/USD could test the 1.3000 handle. Conversely, a “responsible” budget could spark a relief rally. 
• The Liquidity Trap: With U.S. markets closed Thursday and closing early Friday, volume will dry up significantly mid-week. In this environment, any surprise headlines—particularly regarding the Ukraine-Russia peace deal or Nvidia export rules—could cause outsized, jagged price moves. 
• Yen Intervention Watch: With USD/JPY nearing 158 and verbal warnings intensifying, the thin liquidity around Thanksgiving could be the perfect time for the Ministry of Finance to intervene. Traders should be extremely cautious of sudden drops in USD/JPY.