Closing Recap

U.S. stock futures indicate a lower open, pulling back from last week’s record highs as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of a busy week featuring key inflation data and numerous Fed speakers; gold is surging to new all-time highs on safe-haven demand, while the dollar is mixed and Treasury yields are steady. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar is attempting to stabilize after last week’s volatility, with the Euro firming on ECB policy expectations, while the British Pound remains under pressure from fiscal concerns and the Japanese Yen is weighed down by political uncertainty. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Dip After Record Week: Equities are poised for a slightly negative start after the Dow and S&P 500 notched fresh all-time highs last week, driven by the Fed’s dovish rate cut. 
• Focus on Fed Speakers & PCE Inflation: With the Fed rate cut now in the past, market attention shifts to a heavy slate of Fed speakers this week (Williams, Powell, Bostic, Bowman) and Friday’s pivotal PCE inflation report. 
• Gold Surges to New Record Highs: Gold prices are up strongly, with spot gold hitting a new all-time high above $3,711/oz, fueled by the Fed’s dovish signal and ongoing geopolitical risks. 
• Oil Gains on Geopolitical Tensions: Crude oil prices are higher, supported by concerns over escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, alongside tighter sanctions on Russian oil. 
• Dollar Mixed: The U.S. dollar is attempting to find its footing after last week’s volatile swings, with the EUR/USD firming above 1.17, while the GBP/USD remains pressured by UK fiscal worries, and the USD/JPY is steady near 148. 
• Crypto slides: Bitcoin prices are slipping below $113,000 as the broader crypto market sees some profit-taking and altcoins slump. 
• Global Markets Mixed: Asian markets were mixed overnight, with Japan seeing gains, while European markets are listless ahead of a bare data calendar. 
• Government Shutdown Looms: Concerns over a potential partial U.S. government shutdown on October 1st are beginning to surface as a background risk. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets are set for a subdued and slightly lower open this morning as investors catch their breath following a milestone week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 close at new all-time highs. Last week’s rally was ignited by the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point interest rate cut, its first of the year, which reassured investors that policymakers are leaning dovish in response to weakening labor market signals. However, the Fed’s vague guidance on the future path of policy has left the market in a data-dependent mode. 

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract	-160	-0.0034	46491
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous	-21	-0.0031	6701.5
E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Continuous	-80.25	-0.0032	24786

This week, the focus will be squarely on commentary from a host of Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, and the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, on Friday. Economists expect the report to show sticky pricing pressures, which will be a key input for the Fed’s next move. 

Global markets are starting the week on a quiet note. European markets are listless with a light economic calendar, while Asian markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei posting solid gains. In corporate news, Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 year-end target, adding to the bullish sentiment. However, a looming deadline to avert a U.S. government shutdown at the end of the month is a background concern. In commodities, gold is surging to new records, while oil is gaining on geopolitical tensions.

Economic Calendar

The U.S. economic calendar is very light today. The focus remains on the heavy slate of Fed speakers and the PCE inflation report later this week. Today’s Calendar: No major U.S. data, but numerous central bank speakers are on tap. 

• Fed Speakers: Williams, Musalem, Miran, Hammack, Barkin. 
• ECB Speakers: Escriva, Lane, Nagel. 
• BoE Speakers: Pill, Bailey. 
• BoC Speakers: Rogers, Kozicki. 

Key This Week: 

• U.S. PMIs (Tuesday). Fed Chair Powell Speech (Tuesday). 
• Fed Governor Bowman Speech (Tuesday). 
• Q2 GDP Final Estimate (Thursday). 
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August (Friday.)

Commodities, Treasuries and Currencies 

Gold prices surged to a new record high, with spot gold touching $3,711.55 per ounce before settling slightly lower. The rally is fueled by the Fed’s dovish rate cut last week, which has sent the U.S. dollar lower and increased the appeal of the non-yielding metal. Crude oil prices are also advancing, with WTI up 0.93% to $63.26/bbl, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and the prospect of tighter sanctions on Russian oil. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.58	USD/bbl	63.26
Brent	0.32	USD/bbl	67
Gold	39.4	USD/oz	3745.2
Silver	0.863	USD/oz	43.815
EUR/USD	0.0007	USD	1.1754
USD/JPY	-0.03	JPY	147.94
10-Year Note	0.003	%	0.04134
Dollar Index	0.06	Points	97.71

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar is attempting to find its footing after last week’s volatility. The EUR/USD pair has seen its winning streak stall, trading around 1.1750, as investors await fresh catalysts. The British Pound is under pressure, with GBP/USD in a four-day losing streak around 1.3460, weighed down by concerns over UK government finances. The Japanese Yen has weakened at the start of the week, with USD/JPY steady near 148.00, as political uncertainty in Japan may be causing the Bank of Japan to delay policy normalization. 

U.S. Treasury yields are little changed in early trading, with the 10-year yield up slightly at 4.134%, as the bond market digests the Fed’s cut and awaits this week’s key inflation data. Concerns over a potential partial U.S. government shutdown are also a background factor for bonds. Bitcoin is trading lower, down 2.4% to below $113,000, as the crypto market sees some profit-taking and altcoins slump.

Looking Ahead 

The market will be heavily influenced by the constant stream of commentary from Federal Reserve officials this week, culminating in a speech from Chair Powell on Tuesday. These remarks will be intensely scrutinized for any further clues on the path of monetary policy. The main event, however, will be Friday’s PCE inflation report, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge and will be a critical input for future rate decisions. In the meantime, any developments on the trade front or regarding the looming U.S. government shutdown deadline could inject fresh volatility.