Closing Recap

U.S. stocks finished mixed with a slight upward bias, as strength in value sectors and small caps offset a pullback in mega-cap technology; gold surged to a new monthly high, oil slipped on demand concerns, and Treasury yields declined amid ongoing trade uncertainty. 

Key Takeaways 

• Mixed, Rotational Session: S&P 500 and Dow posted modest gains, while the Nasdaq finished lower. Small caps outperformed, and value stocks led growth. 
• Tech Takes a Breather: The technology sector was the primary laggard, pulling back after a strong run, while Healthcare, Real Estate, and Materials outperformed. 
• Trade Uncertainty Persists: Markets continue to digest the approaching August 1st tariff deadline, with fading prospects for a U.S.-EU deal adding to caution. 
• Gold Surges to Monthly High: Gold prices climbed over 1%, nearing recent all-time highs, as trade uncertainty and falling U.S. bond yields boosted its appeal. 
• Oil Slips on Demand Fears: Crude oil prices fell over 2% on concerns that ongoing trade tensions will negatively impact global demand. 
• Yields & Dollar Fall: Treasury yields declined across the curve, and the U.S. dollar weakened as President Trump continued to criticize the Fed for not cutting rates. 
• Low Volatility Streak Continues: The S&P 500 has now gone 24 trading days without a 1% move in either direction, reflecting an unusual period of calm. 
• Bitcoin Nears Record: Bitcoin rallied, breaking above $119,000 as it approaches its recent all-time high, supported by positive regulatory news. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets saw a day of rotation and consolidation, resulting in a mixed but generally positive close. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished in the red, weighed down by profit-taking in some of its mega-cap leaders, the broader S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to eke out small gains. The most notable strength was seen in small caps (Russell 2000) and value-oriented sectors, suggesting investors are looking for opportunities outside of the recently dominant large-cap growth trade. Healthcare, Real Estate, and Materials were among the top-performing S&P sectors, while Technology was the clear laggard. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	179.12	0.004	44502
S&P 500	3.99	0.0006	6309
Nasdaq	-81.49	-0.0039	20892
Russell 2000	17.62	0.0079	2248

The market mood remained cautious but constructive, with investors weighing less aggressive trade commentary from Treasury Secretary Bessent against the reality of the fast-approaching August 1st tariff deadline. Prospects for a deal with the European Union appear to be fading, according to EU diplomats, which kept a lid on broader optimism. With a light economic calendar, much of the focus was on positioning ahead of major earnings reports from tech giants later this week. 

Despite the recent powerful rally, which has seen the S&P 500 go 60 consecutive days without closing below its 20-day moving average, some underlying indicators suggest caution is warranted. Insider selling has been historically high, and the jobs “plentiful vs. hard-to-get” gap continues to narrow, a potential leading indicator for unemployment. Nonetheless, the market’s remarkable low-volatility streak continues, with investors showing little fear for now.

Economic Calendar

No major U.S. economic data releases were scheduled for yesterday. The focus remains on upcoming earnings and central bank meetings. Today’s Calendar:

• Fed Chair Powell Speech (Wednesday). 
• ECB Rate Decision (Thursday). 
• Q2 Earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, Intel. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices surged, with August futures climbing $37.30 (+1.09%) to settle at $3,443.70 per ounce, reaching a new monthly high. The rally was attributed to ongoing trade uncertainty, particularly with the EU and Canada, and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields. Crude oil prices fell, with WTI September futures down $1.47 (-2.15%) to $66.98/bbl, as demand concerns linked to the U.S.-EU trade dispute overshadowed any supply-side tightness. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.99	USD/bbl	66.21
Brent	-0.62	USD/bbl	68.59
Gold	37.3	USD/oz	3443.7
EUR/USD	0.0052	USD	1.1746
USD/JPY	-0.84	JPY	146.54
10-Year Note	-0.039	%	0.04332

The U.S. dollar weakened, with the Yen gaining strength, as investors tracked trade negotiations ahead of the August 1st deadline. Treasury yields slipped across the curve, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling about 3.9 basis points to 4.332%. The decline was influenced by President Trump’s continued public pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Bitcoin surged above $119,000, nearing its recent all-time high.

Looking Ahead 

The market will be keenly focused on Q2 earnings reports this week, especially from mega-cap tech companies, for insights into corporate guidance amidst the ongoing trade uncertainties. Speeches from Fed Chair Powell and Governor Bowman today will be closely watched for any shifts in monetary policy outlook. The European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday will also be a key event. While the market has shown impressive resilience, the rotation out of technology and into value today could signal a shift in leadership if it persists.