Closing Recap 

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a positive start for the new holiday-shortened week, as investors look to rebound from last week’s sharp sell-off. The main catalyst for the improved sentiment is a significant rebound in expectations for a December interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, sparked by dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams on Friday. The probability of a cut has jumped back to nearly 70%. This has put some pressure on the U.S. dollar and provided a tailwind for risk assets. 

The focus for the week ahead will be a deluge of delayed U.S. economic data for September, including PPI and retail sales. Elsewhere, the yen remains weak amid a push for massive new stimulus in Japan. Crude oil is under pressure on hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, while Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a brutal week that saw it lose over 10%. 

Key Takeaways 

• Rate Cut Bets Rebound Sharply: The probability of a December Fed rate cut has surged to nearly 70% after dovish comments from NY Fed President John Williams, boosting risk sentiment to start the week. 
• Futures Point to Positive Open: U.S. stock futures are indicating a solid start to the Thanksgiving week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the gains as traders look for a rebound from last week’s rout. 
• Data Deluge Begins This Week: A flood of delayed U.S. economic data for September begins this week, including PPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production, which will be crucial for the Fed’s next move. 
• Bitcoin Stabilizes After 10% Weekly Loss: The crypto market is attempting to find a floor, with Bitcoin trading around $87,000 after a brutal week that saw persistent institutional outflows and a plunge to 7-month lows. 
• Yen Remains Weak, Intervention Risk Rises: The Japanese yen is still under pressure from the government’s pro-stimulus stance, but officials are escalating their verbal warnings, signaling a greater readiness for currency intervention. 
• Gold Dips as Risk Appetite Improves: Gold prices are slightly lower as the rebound in rate cut bets and equity futures has improved risk appetite, sapping some demand for the safe-haven metal. 

Market Overview 

U.S. markets are starting the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week on a decidedly optimistic note, a stark contrast to the fear and volatility that dominated last week. The primary driver of this turnaround is a dramatic shift in interest rate expectations. Dovish comments from influential New York Fed President John Williams on Friday, in which he suggested a December cut is possible, have reignited hopes for a more accommodative Fed. This has caused a sharp reversal in market pricing, with the odds of a cut now firmly back on the table. This renewed dovish tilt is providing a much-needed tailwind for risk assets, which were battered last week by a “sell the news” reaction to the end of the government shutdown and a brutal intraday reversal on Thursday. However, the market is far from out of the woods. 

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	121	0.0026	46442
S&P 500	32.5	0.0049	6652.75
Nasdaq	168.25	0.0069	24473.75
Russell 2000	9.7	0.0041	2385

This week will see the first major wave of a long-awaited deluge of U.S. economic data for September, which will finally provide a clearer picture of the economy’s health. Any signs of unexpected strength could quickly reverse the current dovish sentiment. The technology sector also remains under intense scrutiny after last week’s sharp pullback, even after Nvidia’s strong earnings. Meanwhile, international developments are shaping sentiment; in Japan, the government’s push for massive stimulus is likely to keep the yen under pressure, highlighting a growing policy divergence that could continue to favor the U.S. dollar, as analysts at Barclays suggest.

Economic Calendar 

With Japanese markets closed for a holiday, today’s session is light on data, allowing the market to focus on risk sentiment and positioning ahead of a busy week. This is a holiday-shortened week in the U.S. due to Thanksgiving on Thursday. Data Released Earlier / Overnight: 

• There were no major economic data releases during the Asian session. 

Today’s Economic Calendar: 

• European Session: German IFO Business Climate survey, though it is unlikely to be a major market mover. 
• U.S. Session: An extremely light calendar with only low-tier data like the Chicago National Activity Index. 
• A heavy slate of central bank speakers from the ECB, including President Lagarde.

Major Risk Events This Week: 

• Delayed U.S. September Data (starting Tuesday): A flood of data including Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Industrial Production will be released. 
• Delayed U.S. Q3 GDP (Wednesday): Will provide a crucial update on economic growth. 
• U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday (Thursday): U.S. markets are closed, with a half-day session on Friday. 

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto

Gold prices are on the back foot, the risk-on mood is weighing on Gold, which has slipped -0.3% to around $4,052 an ounce. The retreat is being driven by the improvement in risk appetite, which is sapping some demand for the safe-haven metal. However, the long-term bullish case remains intact, with Goldman Sachs expecting a December Fed cut. Crude oil prices are also slightly lower, with WTI slipping -0.3% towards $57.90 a barrel as markets weigh the prospects of a potential peace deal in Ukraine against ongoing supply risks. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.14	-0.0024	57.92
Gold	-22	-0.0054	4057.5
EUR/USD	0.0004	0.0003	1.1518
USD/JPY	0.46	0.0029	156.85
Bitcoin	-204	-0.0023	87252
10-Year Note Yield	(Flat)	-0.004	0.04142

The U.S. dollar is slightly softer as the rebound in Fed rate cut bets weighs on the greenback, while the yen remains weak. 

• EUR/USD: The pair is trading with a slight positive bias around 1.1525, benefiting from the softer U.S. dollar. Having closed down for six consecutive sessions last week, the euro is attempting to find a floor. The move is primarily driven by the repricing of Fed expectations. A notable $690M options expiry at the 1.1520 level could act as a magnet for price action today.
• GBP/USD: The pound is attempting a modest rebound above the 1.3100 level, but the upside appears limited. Concerns over the UK’s fiscal situation and the high probability of a December rate cut from the Bank of England are creating significant headwinds for the currency, which have surged to nearly 80%.
• USD/JPY: The pair is holding steady, but the Yen remains on high alert. The pair remains elevated near 157.00. While the prospect of a massive new stimulus package from PM Takaichi is a fundamental negative, Japanese officials have escalated their verbal warnings, with a key government adviser suggesting intervention could come before the 160.00 level if moves are disorderly. A large $1.2B options expiry at the 155.00 level provides a key psychological and technical resistance point. 

Cryptocurrencies: The crypto market is attempting to stabilize after a brutal week of losses. Bitcoin is trading modestly higher around $87,000, but remains battered after slumping over 10% last week amid a wave of institutional outflows from U.S. spot ETFs. Treasuries: U.S. Treasury yields are slightly lower as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the week’s key data releases. The benchmark 10-year yield is trading around 4.14%, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook. 

Looking Ahead 

This week marks a crucial transition for the market, moving from a focus on Washington politics to a renewed dependence on economic data. The deluge of delayed U.S. economic data for September will finally provide a clearer picture of the economy’s health and could dramatically reshape the narrative around the Fed’s next move. Stronger-than-expected data could quickly reverse the current dovish sentiment and weigh on risk assets. Conversely, signs of a significant slowdown could cement expectations for a December cut and fuel a year-end rally. Traders should be prepared for a volatile, holiday-shortened week.

What to Watch

• The Data Deluge is Coming: This is the theme of the week. After weeks of flying blind, the market is finally getting a flood of delayed September data, including PPI and Retail Sales (Tuesday) and Q3 GDP (Wednesday). These reports will be critical in confirming or denying the dovish narrative that is currently driving markets. 
• The Fed vs. Market Pricing: The market has aggressively repriced a December cut back to a 67% probability. However, many Fed officials remain hawkish. This tension between market hopes and Fed caution will be a major source of volatility, especially as the data starts to roll in. 
• Bank Forecasts Diverge: Major banks are split on the outlook. Goldman Sachs is calling for a persistent easing cycle from the Fed, which is bearish for the dollar. Barclays, however, sees a structurally stronger dollar into 2026, driven by the AI investment boom. This divergence highlights the deep uncertainty in the market. 
• The Bitcoin Capitulation Aftermath: After a brutal 10% weekly loss and massive ETF outflows, the key question is whether the institutional selling is over. The rebound is tentative, and the technical picture remains bearish until key resistance levels are reclaimed.