Closing Recap

U.S. stocks ended a four-day losing streak for the S&P 500 with a modest rebound attempt on Friday, though major indices still closed lower for the week as President Trump’s tariff threats against Apple and the EU injected fresh volatility. Bitcoin also made headlines, hitting a new all-time high before a slight pullback.

Looking Ahead

After a week punctuated by renewed tariff anxieties, market participants will navigate a holiday-shortened week with a keen focus on Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report (Wednesday) and the release of the US April PCE inflation data (Friday). Nvidia’s results and outlook will be a key barometer for the AI sector and tech sentiment, especially concerning US-China chip restrictions. The PCE data is crucial for gauging inflationary pressures and will heavily influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy path. The FOMC Minutes from the May meeting (Wednesday) will also be dissected for insights into the Fed’s thinking before recent trade developments.

Central bank activity remains prominent with an expected rate cut from the RBNZ (Wednesday) and policy decisions from the BoK and SARB (Thursday). A host of other important economic releases, including Australian CPI (Wednesday) and Canadian Q1 GDP (Friday), will further shape the global economic narrative. Expect continued sensitivity to any further trade headlines and potential for data-driven volatility.

Key Takeaways

• Markets End Week Lower, Bitcoin Hits New ATH: The S&P 500 snapped a 4-day losing streak but still fell for the week. Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $111,970 before retracing to around $110,700, with analysts citing mixed signals on market overheating. 
• Trump Tariff Threats Roil Markets: President Trump’s social media posts threatening 25% tariffs on Apple (AAPL) and a potential 50% tariff on the EU spurred early market declines. 
• Gold Surges, Yen Gains on Haven Demand: Gold prices jumped over 2% Friday, and the Japanese Yen strengthened as investors sought safe havens following Trump’s tariff comments. 
• Dollar Weakens, Yields Fall: The US Dollar Index (DXY) hit new May lows before paring losses. 10-Year Treasury yields dropped but recovered some ground. 
• Oil Edges Up: WTI crude saw a modest gain, with markets also digesting news of potential progress in Iran nuclear deal talks. 
• Week Ahead Focus: Details from the May FOMC meeting will be parsed for insights into the Fed’s thinking on tariffs and the economic outlook.
• Holiday Note: US & UK markets closed Monday for Memorial Day/Bank Holiday.

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets concluded a volatile week with modest losses, as a four-day losing streak for the S&P 500 was only partially offset by a tepid Friday rebound. Investor sentiment was significantly impacted by renewed trade tariff threats from President Trump. Early Friday, comments on his Truth Social platform targeting Apple (AAPL) with potential 25% tariffs if iPhone production isn’t moved to the U.S., and later suggesting a possible 50% tariff on all EU goods starting June 1st, sent futures sharply lower and weighed on technology stocks. While markets demonstrated some resilience by paring these initial steep losses, the overarching theme of trade uncertainty continued to dictate broader market direction. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)
DJ Industrials	41603	-256.02	-0.0061
S&P 500	5802	-39.18	-0.0067
Nasdaq	18737	-188.53	-0.01
Russell 2000	2039	-5.71	-0.0028

The cryptocurrency market also saw significant action, with Bitcoin (BTC) recording a new all-time high of $111,970 on May 22nd. However, the price retraced shortly after, trading around $110,700 by week’s end. Analysts noted mixed signals regarding whether this rally was overheated or represented a healthy pullback, though some metrics like funding rates suggested a “healthy upward phase.” Back in traditional markets, the tariff threats triggered a flight to safety, with gold prices surging over 2% on Friday and the Japanese Yen gaining broadly. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) touched new May lows before recovering somewhat. Treasury yields saw a sharp initial drop before partly reversing. Oil prices edged higher, with traders also monitoring reports of potential progress in negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of May 26th) 

TUE (May 28): 

• German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jun): Eurozone’s largest economy consumer mood. 
• US Durable Goods Orders (Apr): Key indicator of business investment. 
• US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (May): Regional activity. 

WED (May 29): 

• RBNZ Policy Announcement: Widely expected to cut OCR by 25bps to 3.25% amid global trade uncertainty. 
• FOMC Minutes (May 7th Meeting): Details of Fed’s discussion on increased uncertainty, risks to dual mandate, and tariff impacts prior to recent China trade de-escalation. 
• OPEC JMMC Meeting: Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets ahead of June 1st full meeting; potential for further output hike discussion. 
• Australian Monthly CPI (Apr): Expected to show annual pace slowing to ~1.9% Y/Y, supporting RBA’s dovish stance. 
• German Unemployment (May): Labor market health in Germany. 
• Nvidia (NVDA) Q1 Earnings (After-Market): EPS exp. $0.92, Rev. $43.09bn. Focus on Data Center, China chip ban impact, GB200 ramp, and Q2 guidance (Rev. exp. $46.59bn). 

THU (May 30): 

• US GDP (Q1 – Second Estimate): Revised look at first-quarter growth. 
• US PCE Price Index (Q1 – Second Estimate): Revised inflation data alongside GDP. 
• US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e May 24), Pending Home Sales (Apr): US labor and housing data. 

FRI (May 31): 

• Japanese Tokyo CPI (May): Key leading indicator for national inflation. 
• German Import Prices (Apr), Prelim. CPI (May): Further German inflation data. 
• US PCE Price Index (Apr – Monthly), Personal Income/Consumption (Apr): Headline PCE exp. ~2.2% Y/Y, Core PCE exp. +0.12% M/M, +2.5% Y/Y. Crucial for Fed outlook. 
• US Chicago PMI (May): Regional manufacturing activity. 
• Canadian GDP (Q1 & Mar): March data will show initial tariff impacts; Q1 growth figures key for BoC outlook.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices surged on Friday, gaining over 2% to settle near $3,366/oz, as President Trump’s renewed tariff threats spurred significant safe-haven buying and benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar. Bitcoin, after hitting a new all-time high of $111,970 mid-week, saw some profit-taking and traded around $110,700 by Friday, down about 1.5% on the day. Crude oil (WTI) edged higher to settle around $61.50/bbl, with the market also digesting reports of potential progress in Iran nuclear deal talks. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit new May lows late Friday before a slight recovery. The Japanese Yen was a notable outperformer, gaining broadly on haven demand. The 10-year Treasury yield saw significant intraday volatility, dropping as much as 15bps from Thursday’s highs before ending the day down about 5bps around 4.5%.

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	61.53	0.33	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	64.78	0.34	USD/bbl
Gold (June Fut.)	3365.8	70.8	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1357	0.0075	Rate
USD/JPY	142.61	-1.3	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04509	-0.00044	Yield (%)
Bitcoin (approx)	109500	(Implied -1.5%)	USD