Closing Recap

U.S. stocks capped the week with modest gains on Friday, extending the S&P 500’s win streak to four days (longest since mid-January), though momentum faded slightly amid a lack of fresh economic news and ongoing tariff uncertainty. The 10-Year Treasury yield ended the week around 4.27%, effectively round-tripping back to early April levels after significant volatility earlier in the month. The 2-Year yield declined.

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)
DJ Industrials	40113	20.1	0.0005
S&P 500	5525	40.44	0.0043
Nasdaq	17382	216.9	0.0126
Russell 2000	1957	0.03	0

Looking Ahead 

The upcoming week is shaping up to be pivotal, dominated by a heavy slate of top-tier US economic data releases that will heavily influence the ongoing debate about a potential recession and the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. The spotlight will be firmly on the Q1 GDP estimate, the March PCE inflation report (both Wednesday), and the April Nonfarm Payrolls data (Friday). Market participants will scrutinize these reports for confirmation of a slowing economy and cooling price pressures, which could intensify calls for Fed rate cuts. Beyond the US, the Bank of Japan’s policy decision and updated economic outlook (Thursday) will be critical, especially its assessment of the impact of US tariffs. Inflation data from the Eurozone and Australia, along with China’s PMIs and the results of the Canadian election, will add further layers to the global economic picture. Expect potential volatility as markets digest this confluence of critical data points and central bank signaling amidst the persistent uncertainty surrounding global trade policy.

Key Takeaways 

• Market Rebound Continues: The S&P 500 finished its fourth consecutive positive day, though Friday’s gains were muted compared to earlier in the week. Sell-side optimism ticked slightly higher. 
• Gold Pulls Back: Gold futures retreated sharply from record highs (-1.5% Friday) on profit-taking as tariff rhetoric showed tentative signs of easing, though the Fear & Greed Index remains elevated. 
• Oil Edges Up: WTI crude futures saw a modest gain, supported by slightly calmer trade talk and potential shifts away from aggressive upstream investment due to tariff uncertainty. 
• Bitcoin Surges: Bitcoin continued its strong run, trading above the $95,000 mark. 
• Week Ahead Focus – US Data Trifecta: Crucial US economic data includes Q1 GDP (Wed), March PCE Inflation (Wed), and the April Jobs Report (Fri), all key inputs for Fed policy and recession watch. 
• Week Ahead Focus – BoJ Policy Meeting: The Bank of Japan (Thu) is expected to hold rates but may downgrade its growth outlook due to tariff impacts; Governor Ueda’s tone is key. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Inflation Watch Continues: Eurozone Flash CPI (Fri) and Australian Quarterly CPI (Wed) will inform ECB and RBA outlooks. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Other Key Events: Canadian Election (Mon), US Quarterly Refunding details (Mon/Wed), and Chinese PMIs (Wed) are also on the radar. 

Market Overview 

The US stock market managed to close out the week on a positive note, with the S&P 500 logging its fourth straight day of gains, the longest such streak since mid-January. Friday’s session, however, was relatively subdued, with major indices finishing mixed to slightly higher. Activity was muted by a lack of significant economic data releases, while ongoing tariff headlines continued to swirl without providing concrete clarity, leaving investors to monitor company guidance closely as earnings season progresses. Sell-side analyst sentiment showed a slight improvement compared to the previous week. 

Significant action occurred in other asset classes. The 10-year Treasury yield stabilized around 4.27%, completing a round trip after spiking dramatically earlier in the month amid tariff-induced volatility. Gold futures experienced a significant pullback from recent record highs, settling below $3,300/oz as investors took profits following hints of potential easing in US-China trade tensions, though the metal remains significantly elevated. Crude oil saw modest gains, finding some support from cooling trade rhetoric and industry commentary suggesting a possible slowdown in drilling activity due to tariff uncertainties. Bitcoin extended its impressive rally, pushing firmly above the $95,000 level.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of April 28th)

MON (Apr 28): 

• Canadian General Election: Results expected; polls suggest a narrow Liberal majority led by PM Carney. Potential for a hung parliament exists. 

TUE (Apr 29): 

• US Consumer Confidence (Apr): Gauge of household sentiment. US JOLTS Job Openings (Mar): Indicator of labor market demand. 

WED (Apr 30): 

• Australian CPI (Q1): Expected to show further moderation (Headline consensus ~0.7-0.8% Q/Q); core Trimmed Mean key for RBA (exp. 0.6% Q/Q, 2.8% Y/Y). 
• Chinese Official PMIs (Apr): First major activity data since latest trade escalation; Manufacturing PMI watched closely for trade impact. Caixin PMI is also released. 
• German Flash GDP (Q1) & CPI (Apr): Early look at Europe’s largest economy’s growth and inflation. 
• US Advance GDP (Q1): Consensus +0.4% annualized growth (vs. 2.4% in Q4); Atlanta Fed model notably weaker (-2.5%). Wide forecast range highlights uncertainty. 
• US Core PCE Price Index (Mar): Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Expected +0.1% M/M, +2.5% Y/Y (down from 2.8%). 
• US ADP Employment Change (Apr): Private payrolls estimate ahead of NFP. 
• US Chicago PMI (Apr), Pending Home Sales (Mar): Additional activity indicators. 

THU (May 1): 

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Rate Decision & Outlook Report: Policy expected unchanged (rate at 0.50%). Focus on updated growth/inflation forecasts in Outlook Report and Governor Ueda’s press conference, particularly commentary on tariff impacts and future hike signals. 
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Expected to decline further into contraction (47.9 from 49.0). Prices and employment sub-indices watched closely. 
• UK/US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Apr): Final readings for the month. 

FRI (May 2): 

• US Nonfarm Payrolls Report (Apr): Headline job growth expected to slow to 130k (from 228k). Unemployment rate seen steady at 4.2%. Average Hourly Earnings growth key for wage inflation (+0.3% M/M expected). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold took a breather late last week, pulling back sharply from record highs as profit-taking emerged amid tentative signs of easing trade tensions. The June contract settled around $3,298/oz but remains significantly elevated. Crude oil (WTI) finished the week modestly higher near $63/bbl, finding some support as tariff rhetoric cooled slightly and potential supply constraints from reduced upstream investment were noted. Bitcoin continued its powerful ascent, breaking above $95,000. In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield settled the week near 4.27%, retracing its earlier spike, while the 2-year yield eased to 3.76%. Currency markets were relatively subdued into the weekend, with the EUR/USD dipping slightly below 1.14 and USD/JPY edging higher towards 143.50.

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	63.02	0.23	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	66.87	0.32	USD/bbl
Gold (June Fut.)	3298.4	-50.2	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1378	-0.0011	Rate
USD/JPY	143.52	0.9	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04272	-0.00033	Yield (%)