Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks are poised to open lower, giving back some of yesterday’s strong futures gains, as initial optimism from the EU tariff delay fades and focus shifts to global trade outlook and upcoming U.S. economic data; oil is down on OPEC+ supply hike considerations, gold is weaker, and the dollar is firming. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Ease After Holiday Rally: U.S. stock futures indicate a lower open, paring some of the strong gains seen during Monday’s Memorial Day holiday session driven by the EU tariff delay. 
• Global Markets Mixed: Asian markets mostly declined (Nikkei -0.2%, Kospi -0.5%) as investors assessed the broader trade outlook. European markets are also likely to be cautious. 
• Focus on Trade Nuance: While the EU tariff delay provided relief, underlying trade tensions and the progress of other negotiations (e.g., with China, South Korea) remain key concerns. 
• Oil Slips on OPEC+ Output Hike Talks: WTI crude is down as OPEC+ considers a potential output increase of 411,000 bpd for July, adding to supply concerns. 
• Gold Weakens: Gold prices are retreating from recent highs as the U.S. dollar shows some firmness and immediate safe-haven demand wanes slightly. 
• Dollar Firms, Yields Steady: The U.S. dollar is finding some support after recent weakness, while Treasury yields are relatively stable ahead of key data. 
• Key Data/Events Ahead: U.S. Durable Goods Orders today, Fed speakers throughout the week, and Friday’s crucial PCE inflation report are in focus. SNB Chair Schlegel speaking today. 
• Bitcoin Consolidates: Bitcoin trades in a range above $108K, with strong institutional demand battling resistance near $110K. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets are set to open lower as traders return from the Memorial Day holiday, giving back a portion of the strong gains seen in futures trading on Monday. Yesterday’s rally was fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone the implementation of threatened 50% tariffs on European Union imports until July 9th, providing temporary relief to global trade tensions. However, as the initial euphoria fades, investors are reassessing the broader trade landscape and turning their attention to upcoming economic data and central bank commentary.

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-256.02	-0.0061	41603.07
S&P 500	-39.19	-0.0067	5802.82
Nasdaq	-188.53	-0.01	18737.21
Russell 2000	-5.71	-0.0028	2039.85

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei dipping and South Korea’s Kospi falling after reaching a three-month high. Concerns linger about the actual progress of various trade negotiations beyond the temporary EU reprieve. While the delay is positive, the underlying issues and potential for future tariff escalations remain. China’s markets also saw mixed performance despite slightly better industrial profit data. Japanese inflation data showed April’s core CPI accelerating to 2.4% YoY, exceeding forecasts and potentially paving the way for another Bank of Japan rate hike. 

Focus today will be on U.S. Durable Goods Orders for April, which will provide insights into business investment. Speeches from central bankers, including SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel, will also be monitored for policy signals. The oil market is under pressure as OPEC+ mulls another output increase, while gold is giving back some of its recent gains. The U.S. dollar is showing signs of firming after a period of significant weakness.

Economic Calendar

Focus today is on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and comments from SNB Chair Schlegel. 

• 12:30 PM GMT / 8:30 AM ET: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (Apr) 
• 12:30 PM GMT / 8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders m/m (Apr) 
• SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speech at Basel Banking Forum. 
• Japan SPPI y/y (Apr): 3.1% (Actual) vs. 3.0% (Expected) 
• Japan Core CPI (Apr – from earlier report context): 2.4% YoY (Actual) vs. 2.3% (Forecast) 
• China Industrial Profits (Apr): +1.4% YoY (Up from +0.8% in March) 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices are retreating, trading around $3,309.50 per ounce (-1.67%), as the U.S. dollar firms and some of the immediate safe-haven demand spurred by trade tensions eases following the EU tariff delay. Crude oil prices are also lower, with WTI around $61.18 (-0.49%) and Brent near $63.72 (-0.16%). The decline is attributed to OPEC+ considering another output increase of 411,000 bpd for July, which could add to global supply. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has firmed slightly after hitting a one-month low, making dollar-denominated commodities like gold more expensive for foreign buyers. The Euro is trading around $1.1365 (-0.21%), while the USD/JPY is at ¥143.45 (+0.42%). U.S. Treasury yields are relatively steady, with the 10-year yield around 4.48% ahead of the Durable Goods data. Bitcoin is consolidating above $108,000.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.09	USD/bbl	61.44
Brent	-0.1	USD/bbl	63.72
Gold	-56.3	USD/oz	3309.5
EUR/USD	-0.0024	USD	1.1365
USD/JPY	0.6	JPY	143.45
10-Year Note	(Steady)	%	0.0448

Looking Ahead 

The market will be closely watching the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report for insights into business investment and economic momentum. Comments from SNB Chair Schlegel could provide clues on European central bank thinking regarding trade and inflation. While the EU tariff delay has provided some breathing room, the broader trade narrative with China and other partners remains a key focus. Later in the week, numerous Fed speakers and Friday’s crucial PCE inflation data will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed policy and market direction.