Closing Recap

U.S. stocks finished mostly higher after a late-day push, with small caps outperforming as markets navigated fresh trade headlines and mixed economic data ahead of Nvidia’s key earnings report tomorrow; gold rallied and the dollar slipped on renewed concerns over Fed independence, while oil prices fell. 

Key Takeaways 

• Late Rally Lifts Stocks: Major indices recovered from midday doldrums to finish with modest gains, with the Russell 2000 leading the way. 
• Fed Independence in Focus: The U.S. dollar weakened and gold rallied after President Trump moved to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising market concerns about the central bank’s independence. 
• Focus on NVDA Earnings: Markets are keenly awaiting earnings from AI-leader Nvidia (NVDA) tomorrow night, a critical catalyst for the tech sector. 
• Trade Headlines Continue: The U.S. is set to impose 50% tariffs on India tomorrow, and President Trump threatened new tariffs on nations with digital services taxes. A U.S.-Japan deal announcement is expected this week. 
• Economic Data Mixed: Durable Goods orders showed a headline decline but were stronger ex-transportation. Consumer Confidence and home price data were solid, while a regional manufacturing survey improved. 
• Oil Prices Fall: Crude oil prices pulled back over 2% from three-week highs as investors reassessed geopolitical risks. 
• Gold & Crypto Rise: Gold prices climbed to two-week highs on the Fed news. Bitcoin also edged higher after hitting a seven-week low. 
• Yields Dip: Treasury yields declined slightly ahead of major economic data later this week. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets navigated a day of quiet, range-bound trading, ultimately finishing with modest gains after a late-day push higher. Investors appear to be holding off on making significant bets ahead of several key catalysts later this week, including the highly anticipated earnings report from AI-leader Nvidia (NVDA) tomorrow night and crucial GDP and PCE inflation data. Today’s session saw small caps (Russell 2000) outperform, with Industrials, Healthcare, and Technology leading the S&P sectors, while defensive areas like Consumer Staples lagged. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	136.03	0.003	45418
S&P 500	26.59	0.0041	6465
Nasdaq	94.98	0.0044	21544
Russell 2000	19.42	0.0083	2358

The main headline driving intraday volatility was President Trump’s move to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud. This development, following a week of threats, heightened market concerns over the central bank’s independence from political pressure. The U.S. dollar slipped, and gold prices rallied to two-week highs on the news as investors sought safe havens. 

On the trade front, the White House outlined plans for 50% tariffs on India to take effect tomorrow, and President Trump threatened new tariffs on countries that impose digital services taxes on U.S. tech firms, seemingly targeting the UK. More constructively, Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested an announcement regarding a U.S.-Japan trade deal is imminent. Economic data was mixed; while headline Durable Goods orders fell, the ex-transportation reading was strong, and Consumer Confidence and home price data were also solid.

Economic Data

Economic data yesterday was mixed, with strong ex-transportation durable goods and consumer confidence contrasting with a headline drop in durables and slowing home price growth.

• Durable Goods Orders (July): Fell -2.8% m/m (vs. -4.0% consensus). Ex-transportation, orders rose +1.1% (vs. +0.2% est.). Nondefense capital goods orders ex-aircraft (core capex) rose +1.1%. 
• S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices (June): +2.1% y/y (matching consensus, vs. +2.8% prior). 20-metro area prices -0.3% m/m seasonally adjusted. 
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug): -7 (vs. -20 in July). 
• Consumer Confidence (Aug): 97.4 (Above 96.2 consensus, vs. 98.7 prior). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices rallied, with December futures gaining $15.50 (+0.46%) to settle at $3,433.00 per ounce. The move to two-week highs was driven by concerns over Federal Reserve independence following President Trump’s dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook, which also pressured the U.S. dollar. Crude oil prices pulled back sharply from three-week highs, with WTI falling $1.55 (-2.39%) to settle at $63.25/bbl, as investors reassessed the immediate risk to supplies from the war in Ukraine. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.68	USD/bbl	64.12
Brent	-1.58	USD/bbl	67.22
Gold	15.5	USD/oz	3433
EUR/USD	0.003	USD	1.1648
USD/JPY	-0.47	JPY	147.32
10-Year Note	-0.016	%	0.0426

The U.S. dollar slipped against a basket of currencies, with the Euro and Pound gaining slightly while the Yen and Swiss Franc saw safe-haven bids on the Fed news. Treasury yields dipped ahead of key economic data later in the week. A 2-year Treasury note auction showed strong demand. Bitcoin edged higher after hitting a seven-week low in the previous session.

Looking Ahead 

The market will be laser-focused on the Q2 earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA) after the bell tomorrow, which is expected to be a major catalyst for the technology sector and the broader market. The heavy slate of earnings from other software and hardware companies will also be critical. On the macro front, revised Q2 GDP and the PCE inflation report on Thursday and Friday, respectively, will be the most important data points of the week for shaping the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy expectations.