Closing Recap 

Global financial markets saw a quiet and subdued session on Thursday, with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Trading volumes were extremely thin across Europe and Asia, leading to minimal volatility. European indices were mixed, with investors digesting a slew of regional confidence data and minutes from the latest ECB meeting, which signaled that the rate hike cycle has likely ended. Futures for U.S. indices were halted for much of the Asian and European sessions due to a technical outage at the CME but showed slight gains before the halt. The U.S. dollar was stable, holding its ground after a recent pullback. In the commodity space, oil saw a slight rebound, while gold is on track for its fourth straight month of gains. The crypto market was exceptionally calm, with Bitcoin hovering around the $91,000 level. 

Key Takeaways 

• Quiet Thanksgiving Session: U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, resulting in extremely low liquidity and minimal volatility across global markets. 
• CME Outage Halts Futures Trading: A major technical issue at a CME data center halted trading in key U.S. index and commodity futures for several hours overnight, disrupting the already-thin holiday session.
• Fed Rate Cut Bets Drive Sentiment: The market’s primary driver remains the sharp rebound in expectations for a December Fed rate cut, with the probability now sitting above 87%. 
• Bullish Calls for 2026 Grow Louder: A number of Wall Street banks, including Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan, are now forecasting the S&P 500 could rally to 8,000 by the end of 2026, driven by the AI boom and Fed easing. 
• Sticky Inflation in Japan Boosts BoJ Hike Bets: Hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI data and strong retail sales are fueling speculation that the Bank of Japan could hike rates in December, a move that could trigger a significant yen rally. 
• Gold on Track for 4th Monthly Gain: The precious metal is holding near recent highs, supported by dovish Fed expectations and safe-haven demand, putting it on course for a strong monthly performance. 
• Crypto Stabilizes After Crash: Bitcoin is steadying above $91,000 after a brutal sell-off, with the market attempting to find a floor as the broader risk-on mood improves. 

Market Overview

Thursday’s session was a quiet interlude in what has been a volatile few weeks for the market. With American traders away for the Thanksgiving holiday, global markets were left without their primary driver, resulting in a day of consolidation. The underlying theme, however, remains decidedly bullish. The dramatic dovish repricing of Federal Reserve expectations, sparked by softer U.S. data and supportive official commentary, has put a powerful tailwind behind risk assets. The probability of a December rate cut now stands at a commanding 87%, a stunning reversal from just a week ago. This dovish pivot has been embraced by Wall Street, with a growing chorus of major banks now issuing extremely bullish forecasts for 2026, many of which see the S&P 500 rallying to the 8,000 level. 

Friday’s session is shaping up to be a quiet end to a volatile week, as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday has sapped liquidity from global markets. The most significant event occurred overnight, when a technical outage at the CME, one of the world’s largest derivatives exchanges, halted trading in U.S. futures for several hours. While the issue has since been resolved, the disruption added another layer of quiet to an already subdued holiday trading environment. A “cooling issue” at a data center has halted all trading on the Globex platform, freezing U.S. equity futures, commodity futures, and a host of other derivatives.

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	52	0.0011	47,542 (Futures)
S&P 500	7	0.001	6,835 (Futures)
Nasdaq	45.5	0.0018	25,347.75 (Futures)
Russell 2000	(N/A)	–	2486

While the near-term path may be choppy, the long-term outlook is being bolstered by the transformative potential of the AI boom and the prospect of a sustained easing cycle from the Fed. However, a significant risk is brewing in Japan. Persistently sticky inflation and a resilient domestic economy are increasing the odds of a surprise rate hike from the Bank of Japan in December. Such a move, coinciding with a Fed rate cut, could trigger a massive unwinding of the yen carry trade, a scenario that has historically led to sharp declines in global equities.

Economic Calendar 

With U.S. markets operating on a shortened “Black Friday” schedule, today’s focus is on European inflation data and any headlines that emerge during the thin holiday trading. Overnight data from Japan and Europe has painted a mixed picture of their respective economies.

• ECB Meeting Minutes: Showed policymakers favor keeping rates on hold amid ongoing uncertainty, with some suggesting no further easing may be needed. 
• Japanese Retail Sales & Tokyo CPI (Oct/Nov): Both came in stronger than expected, with the sticky core inflation reading in Tokyo reinforcing the case for a potential BoJ rate hike in December. 
• Tokyo Core CPI (Nov): Held firm at +2.8% year-over-year, slightly above the 2.7% forecast, a hawkish signal for the BoJ.
• German Retail Sales (Oct): A surprisingly weak report, with sales falling -0.3% m/m. 
• French Preliminary CPI (Nov): Came in softer than expected at +0.9% year-over-year.

Today’s Economic Calendar:

• U.S. Markets Open for Shortened “Black Friday” Session (Close at 1:00 PM ET). 
• European Session: Flash inflation data from France, Spain, and Italy will be closely watched ahead of the final German print. 
• Canadian GDP is the only major North American release. 

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto 

Gold prices climbed higher in Asian trade, putting the metal on track for its fourth straight month of gains. The precious metal is consolidating its gains, trading above $4,180 and on track for its fourth straight month of gains, driven by the weaker dollar and rising Fed rate cut bets. The rally is being driven by the sharp increase in Fed rate cut expectations and persistent safe-haven demand. WTI Crude Oil is steady near $59, with traders weighing a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal against OPEC+ supply discipline. Oil prices were steady as investors weighed the prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal against a key OPEC+ meeting this weekend that will set the supply outlook for early 2026. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.43	0.0073	59.08
Gold	19	0.0045	4221.3
EUR/USD	-0.0023	-0.002	1.1573
USD/JPY	0.04	0.0002	156.34
Bitcoin	-307	-0.0034	91134
10-Year Note Yield	0.013	0.0033	0.04012

The U.S. dollar stabilized after several days of losses, holding its ground in thin holiday trading. 

• EUR/USD: The pair is consolidating below 1.1600 after four consecutive days of gains. The euro is finding support from a dovish Fed outlook, but ECB minutes confirmed a firm on-hold stance from Frankfurt, which may cap the upside. A notable $751M options expiry at the 1.1600 level could act as a resistance cap today.
• GBP/USD: The pound is trading around 1.3200, having gained for six straight sessions. The currency found support from the new UK budget, which was seen as a step towards fiscal discipline, though dovish BoE expectations remain a headwind. A large $827M options expiry at the 1.3200 level could act as a powerful magnet. 
• USD/JPY: The pair is trading quietly around 156.35. The market is caught between the broad weakness in the U.S. dollar and a fundamentally weak yen. However, hotter-than-expected inflation data from Tokyo is adding to speculation of a BoJ rate hike, which is providing some support for the Japanese currency but we also have the dovish political pressure from PM Takaichi’s impending stimulus package. The risk of a “Thanksgiving Trap” intervention from Japanese authorities remains a major overhang.

Cryptocurrencies: The crypto market was exceptionally calm amid the U.S. holiday. Bitcoin held steady above the $91,000 level after rebounding from last week’s brutal sell-off. The market appears to be in a consolidation phase as it awaits the next major catalyst. The U.S. Treasury market was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and today the U.S. Treasury market is open for a shortened session. Yields are expected to remain stable in the absence of any major catalysts.

Looking Ahead 

With U.S. markets operating on a shortened session today, liquidity will remain extremely thin. The main focus for traders will be the release of flash inflation data from across the Eurozone and the Canadian GDP report. However, with many market participants still on holiday, any significant price action will likely be driven by month-end flows or unexpected headlines. The real test for the market’s newfound optimism will come next week, when traders return from the long weekend to a full slate of economic data and positioning ahead of the crucial December 10th Fed meeting.

What to Watch

• The CME Outage Resolution: The immediate focus for traders will be on the resolution of the CME outage. Any extended downtime could lead to significant dislocations and unpredictable moves when trading resumes. 
• The “Thanksgiving Trap” in USD/JPY: This is the most significant, actionable risk for FX traders. With liquidity extremely thin today, the risk of a sudden, sharp intervention from Japanese authorities to strengthen the Yen is at its peak. 
• The Yen Carry Trade Unwind Risk: Japan’s sticky inflation is keeping the prospect of a BoJ rate hike alive. A surprise hike could trigger a massive and violent unwind of the popular Yen-funded carry trades, a major risk for global markets that has been a recurring theme. 
• Month-End Flows: Today is the final trading day of November. Month-end rebalancing flows could lead to some erratic and unpredictable price action, especially in the thin holiday liquidity.