Closing Recap (Week Ending November 28) 

U.S. stocks capped a “miraculous” week with a fifth straight day of gains, securing a massive weekly rally (Nasdaq +4.91%) despite a shortened holiday schedule and a major overnight trading outage at CME Group. In currency markets, the US Dollar posted its worst week since July as Fed cut bets surged, sending EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher, while USD/JPY hovered above 156.00. Silver hit a record high, gold extended its winning streak, and Bitcoin bounced back into positive territory for the week. 

Key Takeaways 

• Massive Weekly Gains: The Nasdaq (+4.91%), S&P 500 (+3.73%), and Dow (+3.18%) posted stellar weekly gains, with the S&P 500 recording its best November reversal in history (adding $2.75 trillion in value). 
• 5-Day Win Streak: Major averages rose for 5 consecutive days. The S&P 500 and Dow extended their monthly winning streaks to 7 months, though the Nasdaq snapped its streak despite the weekly surge. 
• Dip Buyers Defend Key Support: Stocks repeatedly broke below their 50-day and 100-day moving averages this week, only to be aggressively bought by institutional investors. S&P 500 put volume hit near-record highs on Thursday, a classic contrarian buy signal.
• CME Exchange Outage: A major technical issue at CME Group halted trading on key currency, treasury, and stock futures benchmarks overnight, freezing markets until Friday morning. 
• Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar: Expectations for a December rate cut jumped to 87% (from <50% last week) following dovish comments from Fed officials Williams and Waller, fueling the rally. 
• Dollar Heads for Worst Week Since July: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled as rate cut expectations revived, closing the month of November negative. The greenback’s weakness fueled a rally in the Euro and a recovery in the Yen.
• Currency Pairs Rally against Dollar: The US Dollar index dropped for the week; EUR/USD gained 0.74%, GBP/USD rose 1.02%, while USD/JPY consolidated gains near 156.00. 
• Gold Soar on Rate Cut Hopes: Precious metals ended the month strong, with gold rallying back above $4,200 as traders piled into non-yielding assets ahead of a likely Fed cut.
• Silver Hits Record High: Spot silver surged over 5% Friday to a new record of $56.40/oz, outpacing gold, which also rose to near-record highs ($4,249).
• Bitcoin Rebounds: Bitcoin recovered from lows near $80k to trade around $90,890, posting a weekly gain after four weeks of losses, though it closed November down ~17%. 
• NFP Delayed: Due to the start of a new month, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is delayed until Dec 16, leaving a data void next week. 
• Week Ahead Focus: With NFP delayed, focus shifts to ISM PMIs (Mon/Wed), Fed Chair Powell’s speech (Mon), and the Bank of Canada decision (Wed). 

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market faces a unique scheduling quirk. Typically the first Friday of the month, next week will NOT feature the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which has been delayed until December 16th. This leaves a significant data vacuum as investors try to confirm the Fed’s path. In the absence of jobs data, the spotlight will fall on the ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and Services (Wednesday) PMIs for November. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on Monday, giving him a chance to validate or push back against the market’s aggressive pricing for a December cut. The Bank of Canada also meets on Wednesday, with markets pricing in a high probability of a rate cut. Eurozone inflation (HICP) and GDP data will also be in focus, as will Australian GDP and Chinese PMIs. With stocks at record highs and sentiment leaning towards “greed,” the market will be looking for confirmation that the “Goldilocks” scenario remains intact.

Market Overview 

It was a week of extreme volatility that tested the resolve of every bull on Wall Street. U.S. equity markets delivered a stunning performance this week, executing a complete turnaround from mid-month lows. The S&P 500 staged its best November reversal in history, rising 5% from the November 21st low to close the month in the green. This “miraculous” recovery was driven by a rapid shift in Federal Reserve expectations. After starting the month with hawkish jitters, commentary this week from influential Fed officials like Christopher Waller and John Williams sent the probability of a December rate cut skyrocketing to 87%. This dovish pivot unleashed a wave of buying that saw the S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000 extend their monthly winning streaks to seven consecutive months.

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	47716	289.3	0.0061	0.0318
S&P 500	6849	36.48	0.0054	0.0373
Nasdaq	23365	151	0.0065	0.0491
Russell 2000	2500	14.32	0.0058	0.0516

Friday’s session was shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday but was not without drama. A significant cooling issue at CME Group’s data centers caused a massive outage, halting trading on critical futures and currency platforms overnight. Despite this disruption, markets opened strong and held gains. The rally was broad, with Financials and Energy leading on Friday. In the background, the end of the record-long 43-day government shutdown has begun to clear the way for economic data, though significant delays remain.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of December 2nd) 

With the government shutdown over and the Fed meeting just over a week away, the market’s focus shifts to a flurry of data that will either confirm or derail the newly revived hopes for a December rate cut. Here is the economic calendar highlights for the week ahead:

SUN (Nov 30): 

• China NBS PMIs (Nov): A key read on the health of China’s manufacturing and services sectors. 
• OPEC-8 Meeting: Producers are expected to keep output unchanged, but any surprises on future capacity baselines could move oil. 

MON (Dec 1): 

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov): The first major U.S. data point of the week. A weak print below 50 would reinforce the dovish Fed narrative. Market consensus is for 48.6 print.
• Fed Chair Powell Speech: His final scheduled remarks before the blackout period will be critical for setting December expectations. 

TUE (Dec 2): 

• Eurozone CPI (Nov Prelim): Inflation data that will help determine if the ECB remains on hold. 

WED (Dec 3): 

• US ADP Employment (Nov): With the October NFP delayed/canceled, this private payrolls report takes on outsized importance as a labor market gauge. 
• US ISM Services PMI (Nov): A key measure of the dominant services sector. 
• Australian GDP (Q3): Expected to show sluggish growth, which could weigh on the Aussie dollar. 
• ECB’s President Lagarde speech

THU (Dec 4): 

• Eurozone Retail Sales (Oct): Consumer spending update. 

FRI (Dec 5): 

• US Core PCE Inflation (Sep – Delayed): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for September is finally released. While “stale,” it is the only official inflation data policymakers will see before the meeting. 
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): DELAYED until Dec 16.
• US University of Michigan Sentiment (Dec – Prelim): Consumer confidence reading. 
• Canadian Employment (Nov): A crucial report for the Bank of Canada’s policy outlook.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Precious metals were the stars of the commodities complex this week. Silver skyrocketed over 5% on Friday to a new record high of $56.40/oz, logging a 90% gain year-to-date. Gold also shined, rising to $4,249.10/oz to secure its fourth straight winning month. Crude oil prices managed a bounce on Friday but gave back its profits after a last minute sell off, with WTI falling to $58.55/bbl, but futures still posted their fourth consecutive monthly loss as traders eyed the upcoming OPEC+ meeting where no policy changes are expected. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	59.46	0.81	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	63.37	0.03	USD/bbl
Gold (Feb Fut.)	4249.1	46.8	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1604	0.0005	Rate
USD/JPY	156.17	-0.13	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04015	0.00017	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	90,890	-0.49%	USD

The currency market saw a significant shift as the U.S. Dollar’s dominance faded on renewed rate cut bets. In currency markets, the US Dollar had a poor week, posting its worst weekly performance since July as yields fell and rate cut bets rose:

• EUR/USD: The pair staged a strong recovery, closing the week up 0.74% at 1.1598. It successfully held the 1.1500 support level and saved the month of November with a positive close (+0.54%). The Euro benefited from steady Eurozone GDP data and the sharp repricing of Fed expectations. 
• GBP/USD: Sterling managed to snap a losing streak, rising 1.02% for the week to close at 1.3231. Despite domestic fiscal concerns following the UK budget, the broad weakness in the dollar allowed the Pound to post a positive monthly close (+0.62%),  recovering from recent fiscal-driven selling. 
• USD/JPY: The pair hovered above 156.00, ending the week down slightly (-0.39%) but closing November with a massive 1.41% gain. The Yen found some support from rising Tokyo inflation data, which keeps a potential BoJ rate hike in play for December, though the market remains wary of the divergence with the Fed.

Bitcoin found a floor after a brutal month. After touching lows near $80,000, it rebounded to close the week around $90,890. While it snapped a four-week losing streak, the 17% monthly drop reminds traders that the crypto winter thaw is still fragile. U.S. Treasury yields ended the week mixed but generally supported by the dovish repricing, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.015%.

What to Watch Next Week

• The “Stagflation” Test via ISMs: Monday’s ISM Manufacturing and Wednesday’s ISM Services reports are critical. The market wants to see a “Goldilocks” scenario: cooling prices paid (to comfort the Fed on inflation) but resilient employment components (to allay recession fears). A jump in prices paid or a collapse in employment would be a worst-case signal. 
• ADP as the New NFP: With the official November jobs report not due until mid-December, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change is the primary labor market signal for the upcoming Fed meeting. A soft number (around 120k-140k) would likely lock in a December cut, while a hot number could introduce fresh volatility. 
• Powell’s Final Word: Chair Powell speaks on Monday. After the rapid shift in market pricing from 27% to 87% odds of a cut, traders will hang on his every word. If he validates the dovish pivot, the year-end rally could accelerate. If he pushes back, expect a sharp reversal.