Closing Recap

U.S. stock futures indicate a modestly lower open, pausing after significant gains last week, as investors brace for a massive week of corporate earnings and await further clarity on trade policy.

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Dip Slightly: Equities poised for a lower start after logging four consecutive positive sessions last week. 
• Massive Earnings Week: Focus shifts squarely to earnings, with ~180 S&P 500 companies reporting, including tech giants AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and META. 
• Trade Uncertainty Persists: Despite last week’s rally on de-escalation hopes, the tariff situation remains fluid, and Secretary Bessent is expected to speak today. 
• Market Reversal Noted: The S&P 500’s sharp recovery in April puts it potentially on track for one of the largest monthly reversals ever if it turns positive. 
• Dollar Firms Slightly: The U.S. dollar edges higher after recent weakness, while yields are flat, and commodities ease slightly pre-market. 
• Geopolitical Watch: US/Ukraine minerals deal reportedly close; Canadian election today; South Korea sees no quick US trade deal. 

Market Overview 

U.S. stock futures suggest a pause in the recent rally as markets kick off a crucial and very busy trading week. After clawing back substantial losses last week driven by hopes of tariff de-escalation, investors appear cautious ahead of a deluge of first-quarter corporate earnings reports. Approximately 180 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release results this week, including heavyweight technology names like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, whose results and outlooks will be intensely scrutinized. While the earnings season has started relatively well, with a majority of companies beating profit estimates, guidance has often been muted or withdrawn, reflecting the significant uncertainty businesses face due to the ongoing trade disputes and tariff impacts.

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
Dow	-50	-0.0012	40204
S&P 500	-13.25	-0.0024	5536
Nasdaq	-47.5	-0.0024	19488

The market narrative, which shifted dramatically last week from “gloom and doom” towards cautious optimism on trade talks, remains fragile. While positive signals emerged, concrete progress remains elusive, and conflicting statements continue to cause volatility. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expected appearance on CNBC this morning will be closely watched for any further clarification on the administration’s stance and negotiation progress. Global markets presented a mixed picture overnight, with Japan gaining while China and Hong Kong slipped, and European bourses trading modestly higher. The significant recovery in U.S. indices last week, particularly the potential for the S&P 500 to turn positive for April after being down heavily, highlights the market’s extreme volatility and sensitivity to shifts in the trade narrative.

Economic Calendar

Today’s U.S. economic calendar features regional manufacturing data. Key focus will also be on any unscheduled remarks regarding trade policy. 

• 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing for April 
• American Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery conference ongoing. 
• RSA Conference begins in San Francisco. 
• Canadian General Election. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Commodity prices are easing slightly in early trading. Crude oil (WTI) is down modestly near $62.66/bbl, while gold has retreated slightly from recent record highs, trading below $3,300/oz near $3,294.80. Gold’s pullback reflects slightly improved risk sentiment compared to peak fear levels, along with a firmer U.S. dollar this morning. The Dollar Index (DXY) is edging higher, recovering somewhat from the multi-year lows hit last week as investors await comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent and digest geopolitical news. U.S. Treasury yields are little changed in the pre-market session, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.27%, consolidating after last week’s significant volatility.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.36	USD/bbl	62.66
Brent	-0.25	USD/bbl	66.62
Gold	-3.6	USD/oz	3294.8
EUR/USD	-0.001	USD	1.1355
USD/JPY	0.21	JPY	143.26
10-Year Note	0.006	%	0.04272

Looking Ahead 

This week is dominated by Q1 earnings reports, which will heavily influence sector and overall market direction. Guidance relating to tariff impacts will be particularly crucial. Comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent today could provide further direction on the trade front. Geopolitical developments, including the Canadian election results and any news regarding the reported U.S./Ukraine minerals deal, will also be monitored. Later in the week, key economic data releases, including GDP and the PCE inflation report, will become increasingly important focus points.