Closing Recap

 U.S. stocks ground higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting modest gains as investors anxiously awaited Nvidia’s pivotal earnings report after the bell; oil and gold rallied, while Treasury yields were mixed and the dollar was volatile. 

Key Takeaways 

• Quiet Grind Higher Ahead of NVDA: Major indices posted another day of gains in a quiet session, with the market’s full attention on Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings after the close.
• NVDA Earnings a Major Catalyst: Nvidia’s results are seen as a crucial barometer for the entire AI ecosystem and broader market sentiment, given its massive market weighting. 
• Broadening Participation Noted: Market statistics show improving breadth, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 on track to outperform the cap-weighted index for the month, a sign of healthier participation. 
• Dovish Fed Bets Intact: Markets continue to lean on the dovish pivot from Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last week, which has supported the rally. 
• Oil & Gold Gain: Crude oil prices rose on bullish weekly inventory data, while gold climbed on a weaker dollar and lingering policy uncertainty. 
• Yields Mixed, Dollar Volatile: Short-term Treasury yields fell, while longer-dated yields rose. The U.S. dollar reversed early strength to finish lower. 
• Bitcoin Rebounds: Bitcoin recovered from seven-week lows as risk appetite in some corners of the market remained resilient. 
• Focus on GDP & PCE: Key economic data, including revised Q2 GDP and the PCE inflation report, is due later this week. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets continued their slow but steady march higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting another day of modest gains. The session was characterized by a palpable sense of anticipation as investors held off on making significant bets ahead of what is arguably the most important earnings report of the quarter: results from AI-leader Nvidia (NVDA), due after the close. The market’s recent powerful rally has been heavily reliant on the AI narrative, and with Nvidia representing a massive 8% of the S&P 500’s market weight and 16% of the tech sector ETF (XLK), its results and guidance are seen as a critical test for the entire market’s momentum. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	146.98	0.0032	45565
S&P 500	15.43	0.0024	6481
Nasdaq	45.87	0.0021	21590
Russell 2000	15.2	0.0064	2373

The positive backdrop for today’s session was provided by last Friday’s dovish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, which has solidified expectations for a September rate cut. This has kept a bid under risk assets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average now boasting a 13-year streak of hitting at least one new all-time high annually. Nine of the eleven S&P sectors closed higher today, led by a bounce in Energy prices, while Technology and REITs also showed strength. 

While the market has been driven by a handful of mega-cap names, recent statistics suggest a potential broadening of the rally. The equal-weighted S&P 500 is on track to outperform the cap-weighted index this month, and a high proportion of stocks are now trading above their 200-day moving average. This suggests a healthier, more participatory advance, which could provide a more durable foundation for future gains.

Economic Calendar

No major U.S. economic data was released yesterday. The focus remains on upcoming GDP and inflation data. 

• Revised Q2 GDP (Thursday). 
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July (Friday). 
• U.S. Jobs Report for August (Next Week). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices edged higher in early European trading, trading near a three-week high around $3,400, but the narrative suggests some profit-taking later. December futures ultimately gained $15.60 (+0.45%) to settle at $3,448.60 per ounce. The metal found support from a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns about Federal Reserve independence. Crude oil prices rallied, with WTI gaining $0.90 (+1.42%) to settle at $64.15/bbl. The gains were supported by a bullish weekly EIA inventory report showing a significant draw in crude stocks. Natural gas prices also surged on the expiration of the September contract. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.9	USD/bbl	64.15
Brent	0.83	USD/bbl	68.05
Gold	15.6	USD/oz	3448.6
EUR/USD	-0.001	USD	1.1632
USD/JPY	0.06	JPY	147.46
10-Year Note	-0.018	%	0.04238

The U.S. dollar index was volatile, firming early before reversing to finish lower as the Euro and Yen gained ground. Treasury yields were mixed; the short end of the curve saw yields fall, with the 2-year yield hitting its lowest since May 1st, while longer-dated yields were higher. A 5-year Treasury note auction showed weak demand, resulting in a “tail.” Bitcoin rebounded, trading over 1.7% higher near $113,000 after hitting a seven-week low earlier this week.

Looking Ahead 

The market’s immediate direction will be dictated by the reaction to Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report and, more importantly, its forward guidance on AI demand. The heavy slate of earnings from other software and hardware companies will also be critical. On the macro front, revised Q2 GDP data tomorrow and the PCE inflation report on Friday will provide the most important economic signals of the week, potentially confirming the market’s dovish expectations for the Fed or introducing fresh uncertainty.