Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mixed after recovering from significant morning lows, extending the S&P 500’s win streak ahead of a crucial week for earnings and economic data; gold climbed while oil, the dollar, and Treasury yields eased.

Key Takeaways 

• Recovery Leads to Mixed Close: Stocks bounced back strongly from midday lows (-1% on Nasdaq) to finish little changed to slightly higher; S&P 500 logged a 5th straight gain. 
• Tech Weakness Early: Mega-cap tech stocks (Mag7) were down early, weighing on the Nasdaq before the afternoon recovery. 
• Focus Shifts to Earnings/Data: Markets brace for the busiest week of Q1 earnings (~180 S&P companies) and key economic reports (Jobs, Inflation, GDP). 
• Dallas Fed Disappoints: Regional manufacturing data showed a sharp decline, contributing to dollar and yield weakness after the release. 
• Gold Rebounds: Gold prices climbed significantly, recovering some ground lost late last week. 
• Oil Slips: Crude oil prices declined on persistent demand concerns. 
• Dollar & Yields Ease: The U.S. dollar index fell after the weak data, and Treasury yields declined to near three-week lows. 
• Treasury Borrowing Needs Rise: Treasury Department announced significantly higher borrowing estimates for Q2 and Q3.

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets demonstrated resilience yesterday, erasing notable midday losses to finish mixed as investors positioned themselves for a pivotal week packed with corporate earnings and major economic data releases. The Nasdaq Composite was down over 1% around lunchtime, dragged lower by weakness across all seven “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, while the S&P 500 and Dow also dipped into negative territory. However, a steady afternoon recovery pushed indices back towards positive territory, allowing the S&P 500 to secure its fifth consecutive winning session and pull back significantly from its deep intra-month lows seen mid-April. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	114.09	0.0028	40227
S&P 500	3.52	0.0006	5528
Nasdaq	-16.81	-0.001	17366
Russell 2000	7.93	0.0041	1965

The market narrative appears to be shifting, albeit tentatively, from the intense hour-by-hour focus on tariff headlines towards assessing corporate performance and the underlying economic health. While Q1 earnings reported so far have generally beaten lowered expectations, guidance has often been cautious or withdrawn due to trade uncertainty. Today’s sharp downturn in the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index underscored ongoing economic concerns, seemingly contributing to a pullback in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields after its release. Sentiment remains deeply pessimistic, with indicators like the Fear & Greed Index still registering “Extreme Fear,” suggesting the recent rally may be built on fragile foundations as investors await more concrete news on trade or clearer economic signals. The Treasury’s announcement of significantly higher borrowing needs for the coming quarters also adds a potentially challenging backdrop for the bond market.

Economic Data

Yesterday’s regional manufacturing data was the main scheduled release ahead of a packed economic calendar later this week. 

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr): Came in at -35.8, significantly weaker than March’s -16.3. Output index eased slightly to 5.1 from 6.0. 
• Key Events This Week: Busiest week of Q1 Earnings (~180 S&P 500 companies), Jobs data (JOLTS, ADP, NFP), PCE Inflation, Q1 GDP.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices rebounded strongly, with June futures rising $49.30 (+1.47%) to settle at $3,347.70 per ounce. The gains came as the U.S. dollar weakened following the poor Dallas Fed data, making gold more attractive, and potentially reflecting lingering safe-haven interest despite the stock market recovery. Crude oil prices slid, with WTI down $0.97 (-1.54%) to $62.05 per barrel, weighed down by ongoing concerns about the impact of global trade disputes on demand. Natural gas, however, saw a significant rally (+7.93%). The increase, alongside higher inventory figures ($514B in Q2 and $554B in Q3) than previously estimated, provides important context for future supply dynamics.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.97	USD/bbl	62.05
Brent	-0.97	USD/bbl	65.86
Gold	49.3	USD/oz	3347.7
EUR/USD	0.0045	USD	1.1409
USD/JPY	-1.48	JPY	142.19
10-Year Note	-0.043	%	0.04223

Looking Ahead 

This week is packed with potential market movers. The sheer volume of Q1 earnings reports, especially from tech mega-caps (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META), will provide critical insights into corporate health and guidance amid trade uncertainty. Key economic data, including the first look at Q1 GDP, the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure, and the monthly jobs report, will offer crucial signals about the economy’s trajectory. Any further developments or clarifications on the trade/tariff front will also remain a significant influence on market sentiment.