Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mostly lower in a quiet session as investors awaited Nvidia’s earnings and digested cautious FOMC minutes; gold and oil prices slipped while the dollar and Treasury yields edged higher ahead of key economic data. 

Key Takeaways 

• Quiet Day, Stocks Drift Lower: Major indices saw a muted trading day with a slight negative bias, as markets paused ahead of major catalysts. 
• Nvidia Earnings Awaited: All eyes were on Nvidia’s (NVDA) Q1 earnings report after the bell, seen as a crucial barometer for the tech/AI sector and broader market. 
• FOMC Minutes Show Caution: Minutes from the May Fed meeting revealed officials acknowledged potential “difficult tradeoffs” between rising inflation and unemployment, and saw increased recession risks. 
• Markets Digest Recent Gains: Stocks consolidated after a strong multi-day rally driven by trade de-escalation hopes. 
• Gold Slips, Oil Edges Up: Gold prices eased slightly, while crude oil posted modest gains. 
• Dollar & Yields Tick Higher: The U.S. dollar firmed, and Treasury yields rose slightly following a 5-year note auction that saw record foreign demand. 
• Focus on GDP/PCE Data: Key economic reports, including Q1 GDP (revised) and April PCE inflation, are due later this week. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets experienced a day of relative calm and consolidation, finishing mostly in negative territory as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of several key market-moving events. After a significant surge higher earlier in the week fueled by positive trade news, today’s session was characterized by a “wait-and-see” approach. The primary focus for many was the highly anticipated first-quarter earnings report from semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA), due after the close, which is viewed as a critical indicator for the health of the AI-driven technology sector and potentially the broader market. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-244.95	-0.0058	42099
S&P 500	-32.98	-0.0056	5888
Nasdaq	-98.23	-0.0051	19100
Russell 2000	-22.6	-0.0108	2067

Adding to the cautious mood were the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 6th-7th policy meeting, released this afternoon. The minutes revealed that Fed officials acknowledged they could face “difficult tradeoffs” in the coming months if inflation remains persistent while unemployment rises. Staff projections also indicated increased risks of a recession. This cautious tone from the Fed, emphasizing the challenges posed by the current economic environment and the impact of tariffs, did little to inspire aggressive buying. Trading was largely range-bound for most of the day, with stocks fading slightly into the close. Economic data was light, with a regional manufacturing survey showing continued weakness and a Fed survey indicating mixed household financial sentiment. Investors are now looking towards tomorrow’s revised Q1 GDP figures and quarterly PCE data, followed by the fresher April Core PCE inflation report on Friday, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

Economic Data: 

Economic data yesterday was light and mixed, with a weak regional manufacturing survey and a Fed household survey showing cautious optimism. 

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May): Came in at -9, an improvement from -13 in April but still indicating contraction in regional manufacturing activity. Shipments and services revenues components also remained negative. 
• Fed Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED – 2024): Showed 73% of U.S. households “doing OK” (vs. 72% in 2023). However, only 29% viewed the economy as “good” or “excellent” (up from 22%). 60% felt inflation was worsening their life (down from 65%). 63% had cash for a $400 emergency, unchanged. 
• FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile (Q1 2025): Bank profits rose 5.8% to $70.6B, driven by noninterest income. Loan loss provisions increased 9.1% YoY. Asset quality generally favorable, but CRE weakness persists. Loan growth slowed. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices eased slightly, with June futures settling down $5.50 (-0.16%) at $3,294.90 per ounce, consolidating after recent strong gains. Crude oil prices edged higher, with WTI gaining $0.95 (+1.56%) to settle at $61.84/bbl, perhaps finding some support from broader market stability or specific inventory expectations. The U.S. dollar index firmed by about 0.3% to 99.80, recovering some ground ahead of key U.S. economic data. Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield climbing nearly 5 basis points to 4.481%. A $70 billion 5-year Treasury note auction saw very strong foreign demand (record indirect bid) but was sold at a slightly higher yield than when-issued, indicating adequate but not overwhelming demand overall. Bitcoin prices eased from recent all-time highs.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.95	USD/bbl	61.84
Brent	0.81	USD/bbl	64.9
Gold	-5.5	USD/oz	3294.9
EUR/USD	-0.0039	USD	1.1289
USD/JPY	0.56	JPY	144.89
10-Year Note	0.047	%	0.04481

Looking Ahead 

The market’s reaction to Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report and guidance, released after the close, will be a major driver for the technology sector and broader market sentiment tomorrow. Following that, attention will turn to key U.S. economic data: revised Q1 GDP and quarterly PCE figures tomorrow morning, and then the crucial April Core PCE inflation report on Friday. These releases will provide critical insights into the health of the economy and inflation trends, potentially influencing expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. Trade headlines, while quieter today, remain a background factor.