Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks staged a powerful rally, erasing sharp overnight losses as investors awaited details on new tariffs; gold climbed back near record highs, oil gained, the dollar slipped, and Treasury yields ended mixed. 

Key Takeaways 

• Strong Reversal Rally: Equities reversed steep pre-market declines to finish firmly positive across the board, led by small caps. 
• Tariff Announcement Anticipation: Markets were intensely focused on President Trump’s post-close Rose Garden announcement regarding reciprocal tariffs, driving volatility. 
• ADP Beats Expectations: Private payrolls came in stronger than forecast, suggesting continued labor market resilience. 
• Small Caps Lead: The Russell 2000 significantly outperformed larger indices, indicating renewed risk appetite in some segments. 
• Gold Rises, Oil Gains: Gold prices moved higher, nearing recent records, while crude oil also posted solid gains. 
• Dollar Slips, Yields Mixed: The U.S. dollar weakened, while Treasury yields saw the short end rise slightly and the long end flatten after hitting earlier lows. 
• Tariff Speculation Rife: Various reports speculated on the structure and severity of the impending tariffs (e.g., blanket levies, tiered bands) ahead of the official announcement. 

Market Overview 

Wall Street bulls asserted control today, orchestrating a dramatic turnaround from significant overnight weakness. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down over 1% pre-market, but buyers stepped in aggressively, pushing indices more than 1% higher by the afternoon and leading to a strong closing rally. This impressive buying occurred despite the massive uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s imminent (4:00 PM EST) announcement detailing new reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	235.36	0.0056	42225
S&P 500	37.9	0.0067	5670
Nasdaq	151.16	0.0087	17601
Russell 2000	33.12	0.0165	2045

The lack of clarity on the specific measures – with media speculation ranging from 20% blanket levies to tiered bands based on country and industry – has kept global markets volatile and generally weak, particularly in Europe. However, U.S. markets today seemed to shrug off the immediate fear, perhaps positioning ahead of the news or reflecting a “buy the rumor” dynamic, though the potential for significant disruption remains high. It’s important to remember that 25% auto tariffs and ~20% additional China tariffs are already slated or in effect, with broader 10% reciprocal tariffs and targeted rates for specific countries expected based on prior comments. The market awaits confirmation and details, with many bracing for potential fallout tomorrow, dubbing it potentially “D-Day on Wall Street.” The strong performance, especially in small caps (Russell 2000 +1.65%), suggests a degree of resilience or perhaps hopeful positioning before the details emerge.

Economic Data

Economic data today was secondary to the tariff anticipation but showed continued strength in the labor market and factory activity. 

• ADP Private Payrolls (Mar): Showed a gain of +155,000 jobs, exceeding the consensus estimate of +120,000. The prior month’s figure was also revised higher to +84,000 (from +77,000). 
• Manufacturing continued to show strong gains. 
• Factory Orders (Feb): Orders excluding transportation rose +0.4% month-over-month, matching estimates and accelerating slightly from January’s +0.3%. Orders excluding defense increased +0.5%. 
• Headline durable goods orders for February were revised slightly higher to +1.0% (from +0.9%). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices resumed their climb, with June futures settling up $20.20 at $3,166.20 per ounce, just shy of recent record highs. The move was aided by a weaker U.S. dollar (down 0.4%) and persistent safe-haven demand ahead of the tariff news. Crude oil prices also gained, with WTI settling up 0.72% at $71.71/bbl, potentially reflecting supply concerns related to tariffs or geopolitical factors. Other commodities like cocoa and raw sugar also saw notable gains. U.S. Treasury yields ended mixed after a volatile session. The benchmark 10-year yield rose about 2.5 basis points to 4.181% (closing slightly higher around 4.207% based on macro table), recovering from a fresh one-month low hit earlier. Shorter-dated yields saw slightly more upward pressure following the solid ADP report, while longer yields flattened.

Asset	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	0.51	71.71
Brent	0.46	74.95
Gold	20.2	3166.2
EUR/USD	0.0062	1.0855
USD/JPY	0.42	150.03
10-Year Note	0.051	0.04207

Looking Ahead 

The immediate market focus will be the reaction to President Trump’s tariff announcement delivered after the close. The details regarding the scope, timing, and affected countries/industries will be intensely scrutinized and are likely to drive significant volatility in overnight and Thursday trading. Beyond tariffs, the market continues to look ahead to Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls report for a comprehensive view of the U.S. labor market.