Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks rallied strongly in the afternoon, extending the S&P 500’s win streak to six days following positive commentary on trade/tariffs; oil prices fell sharply, gold eased, the dollar bounced slightly, and Treasury yields declined. 

Key Takeaways 

• Afternoon Rally Secures Gains: Stocks overcame morning choppiness to finish firmly higher, driven by optimistic trade commentary. 
• S&P 500 Extends Win Streak: The benchmark index notched its 6th consecutive gain, breaking above recent highs. 
• Lutnick Comments Boost Sentiment: Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested a 10% tariff wouldn’t significantly impact prices and hinted a trade deal announcement is pending approval. 
• Economic Data Disappoints: Consumer Confidence hit lows not seen since 2020, JOLTS job openings fell short, and the goods trade gap widened to a record, largely ignored by equities. 
• Oil Plunges: WTI crude dropped over 2.6%, briefly falling below $60/bbl on demand concerns and supply pressures, marking a sharp monthly decline. 
• Gold Eases, Dollar Bounces: Gold prices pulled back from recent highs as risk appetite improved slightly, while the U.S. dollar recovered modestly from multi-year lows. 
• Treasury Yields Fall: Yields declined across the curve, particularly longer-dated maturities, reflecting underlying economic concerns despite the stock rally. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets navigated a choppy morning session before staging a robust rally in the afternoon, ultimately closing with solid gains across the board. The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to six days, managing to take out resistance levels from the previous session. The primary catalyst for the afternoon surge appeared to be positive commentary regarding trade and tariffs from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. In a CNBC interview, Lutnick downplayed the price impact of a potential 10% tariff and, more significantly, hinted that a trade deal with one country is awaiting approval before announcement. This followed earlier encouraging remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent and added fuel to hopes for de-escalation in the trade conflicts that have recently battered markets.

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	300.03	0.0075	40527
S&P 500	32.04	0.0058	5560
Nasdaq	95.19	0.0055	17461
Russell 2000	10.96	0.0056	1976

Despite the positive stock market reaction, underlying economic data released today painted a concerning picture. Consumer Confidence dropped to its lowest level since 2020, JOLTS job openings missed estimates, the goods trade deficit hit a record high, and regional service sector outlooks deteriorated. Home price growth also showed signs of slowing. However, investors seemed to prioritize the potentially positive trade developments over the weak data for the session. Market breadth was strong, with ten of the eleven S&P sectors finishing higher, although Energy lagged significantly due to plunging oil prices. While the rally extended, the market remains highly sensitive to trade headlines, and the significant pullback in gold suggests some reduction in immediate safe-haven demand.

Economic Data

Yesterday’s economic data releases were broadly disappointing, pointing towards slowing activity and confidence, though largely overshadowed by positive trade commentary. 

• Consumer Confidence (Apr): Dropped to 86.0 (vs. 87.5 consensus) from 92.5 prior, the lowest reading since 2020. 
• JOLTS Job Openings (Mar): Fell to 7.192 million, below the 7.500M estimate and down from 7.568M prior.
• Goods Trade Balance (Mar – Advance): Gap widened to a record $162 billion (vs. $145B est.). Advance wholesale inventories rose +0.5%; advance retail inventories ex-autos rose +0.4%. 
• Dallas Fed Services Sector (Apr): Revenue index improved slightly to 3.8, but the general business activity outlook deteriorated sharply to -19.4 from -11.3. 
• S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices (Feb): 20-metro area prices rose +4.5% year-over-year (below +4.7% consensus and prior). Month-over-month seasonally adjusted gain was +0.4%, matching consensus. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold futures eased, settling down $14.10 (-0.42%) at $3,333.60/oz as improved risk appetite following positive trade comments reduced safe-haven demand. This pullback came after gold hit record highs above $3,500 earlier in the month. Crude oil prices fell sharply, with WTI dropping $1.63 (-2.63%) to settle near $60.42/bbl, briefly dipping below $60 intraday. Renewed trade tensions (despite today’s positive spin), a significant drop in U.S. consumer confidence, inventory builds, and potential OPEC+ output hikes contributed to the decline, putting WTI on track for its worst month since 2021. The U.S. dollar index bounced modestly (+0.55%) but remained near multi-year lows, finding some support as immediate trade fears eased slightly. Treasury yields declined across the curve, with the 10-year yield falling over 4 basis points to 4.172%, reflecting underlying economic growth concerns despite the stock rally. A 2-year note auction saw relatively weak demand.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-1.63	USD/bbl	60.42
Brent	-1.61	USD/bbl	64.25
Gold	-14.1	USD/oz	3333.6
EUR/USD	-0.0025	USD	1.1395
USD/JPY	0.18	JPY	142.19
10-Year Note	-0.044	%	0.04172

Looking Ahead 

The market remains highly attuned to trade/tariff developments. While recent commentary has been more positive, concrete details on deals or sustained de-escalation are needed to solidify sentiment. The heavy slate of Q1 earnings reports continues this week, providing crucial company-specific insights. Key economic data releases, including Q1 GDP and the PCE inflation report later this week, will be closely watched for confirmation of the trends suggested by today’s weaker confidence and activity readings.