Closing Recap

U.S. stock futures indicate a higher open, pointing to another day of gains and potential record highs as markets extend a powerful rally fueled by trade optimism and Fed rate cut hopes; global markets are mixed, while oil and the dollar are steady, and gold is slightly higher. 

Key Takeaways

• Futures Point to Further Gains & Records: Equities are set to open higher, with the S&P 500 on track for its 7th straight day of gains and poised to build on Friday’s record close. 
• Powerful Rally Continues: The S&P 500 has surged ~25% from its April lows, driven by lower inflation, a tech/AI rally, and de-escalating trade tensions. 
• Record Recovery: The 89 trading days between S&P 500 record highs marked the fastest-ever recovery from a decline of at least 15%. 
• Banks Pass Stress Tests: U.S. banks are trading slightly higher after successfully passing the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests, showing resilience to a severe downturn. 
• Focus on Chicago PMI: Today’s key economic data is the Chicago PMI for June, which is expected to show continued contraction. 
• Global Markets Mixed: Asian markets were mostly higher (Nikkei +0.9%), while European markets are trading slightly lower. 
• Oil Steady, Gold Edges Up: Crude oil is little changed, gold is modestly higher, the dollar is flat, and Treasury yields are slightly lower. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets are on track to begin the final trading day of the month with further gains, building on a powerful rally that has seen major indices recover all their “tariff tantrum” losses and push to new record highs. U.S. futures are trading higher this morning, suggesting the S&P 500 could extend its winning streak to a seventh consecutive session. The market’s advance has been remarkable, with the S&P 500 up roughly 25% from its April lows, marking the fastest recovery from a 15%+ decline on record. 

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
Dow	216	0.0049	44341
S&P 500	27.25	0.0045	6251
Nasdaq	153.5	0.0067	22905

This powerful rally has been fueled by a combination of factors. Recent inflation readings have come in cooler than expected, increasing market hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. Simultaneously, investor enthusiasm for technology and AI-related stocks has been reignited, with sector leaders like Nvidia scoring new records. Perhaps most importantly, the de-escalation of trade tensions with key partners, including China and the European Union, has removed a significant overhang of uncertainty from the market, boosting investor confidence. 

Today’s focus will be on the Chicago PMI reading for June, which is expected to show continued contraction in regional manufacturing activity. However, given the strong upward momentum, it remains to be seen if a weak reading can derail the current rally. In corporate news, major U.S. banks are trading modestly higher after successfully navigating the Fed’s annual stress tests, results of which were released late Friday. Global markets were mixed overnight, with Asian indices mostly positive while European markets slipped slightly.

Economic Calendar

Today’s U.S. economic calendar features regional manufacturing data. 

• 9:45 AM ET / 1:45 PM GMT: Chicago PMI for June (Forecast: 42.7, Prior: 40.5) 
• 10:30 AM ET / 2:30 PM GMT: Dallas Fed Manufacturing for June 
• 12:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM GMT: Monthly crop report for June (dropped to 40.5 from 44.6, marking the 18th straight month of contraction.)

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Crude oil prices are little changed in early trading, with WTI near $65.30/bbl, as the market balances ongoing trade optimism with underlying supply/demand fundamentals. Gold prices are modestly higher, with spot gold gaining to around $3,296.90/oz, finding support from a relatively stable dollar and ongoing central bank policy discussions. The U.S. dollar index is flat to slightly weaker, while the Euro is steady and the Yen has weakened slightly against the dollar. U.S. Treasury yields are down modestly, with the 10-year yield easing about 2.6 basis points to 4.257%, reflecting positioning ahead of the week’s economic data and continued expectations for eventual Fed easing. Bitcoin is consolidating in a narrow range around $108,220.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.22	USD/bbl	65.3
Brent	-0.17	USD/bbl	67.6
Gold	9.3	USD/oz	3296.9
EUR/USD	0.0004	USD	1.1722
USD/JPY	-0.45	JPY	144.2
10-Year Note	-0.026	%	0.04257

Looking Ahead 

The market will be watching today’s Chicago PMI data for further confirmation of the state of the manufacturing sector. With earnings season largely over and a temporary lull in major trade news, focus will shift more towards economic data and Fed commentary. Key releases later this week, including the monthly jobs report, will be critical in shaping expectations for the economy’s second-half trajectory and potential Fed policy moves. The looming tariff hike deadline in early July also remains a background factor for investors.