Closing Recap 

U.S. stock futures point to a mixed open, potentially halting a long rally streak, pressured by President Trump ruling out a Xi meeting and a surprise OPEC+ output hike hitting oil prices; gold is up, while Treasury yields are flat ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Mixed, Rally Streak Threatened: Dow futures higher, S&P/Nasdaq lower, putting the recent 9-day win streak for Dow/S&P in jeopardy. 
• Trump Cools China Talk Hopes: President Trump stated no plans to speak with President Xi this week, dampening hopes for imminent trade deal progress. 
• OPEC+ Surprises with Output Hike: OPEC+ unexpectedly agreed to accelerate output increases in June, reportedly to punish overproducers, sending oil prices sharply lower. 
• Buffett to Step Down: Warren Buffett announced plans to step down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO at year-end, naming Greg Abel as successor; Buffett downplayed recent market volatility. 
• Dollar Weakness Theme Persists: Taiwan dollar sees massive surge against USD, highlighting underlying pressure on the greenback despite today’s mixed pre-market moves. 
• Key Week Ahead: Focus shifts to the mid-week FOMC meeting, Bank of England decision, ISM Services data, and ongoing earnings. 
• Global Markets Mixed: Asian markets mostly closed for holiday, European markets mixed with UK closed. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets are signaling a potentially challenging start to the week, with futures pointing mixed and threatening to end the remarkable nine-day winning streaks posted by both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 last week. That powerful rally had recouped a significant portion of the steep losses incurred during the April “tariff tantrum.” However, several factors are creating headwinds this morning.

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
Dow	240	0.0058	41187
S&P 500	-42.25	-0.0075	5666
Nasdaq	-186.5	-0.0092	20009

President Trump tempered expectations for a quick resolution on the trade front over the weekend, stating he has no immediate plans to speak with Chinese President Xi, even while expressing a desire for a “fair deal.” This comes after hopes for de-escalation fueled last week’s gains. Adding significant pressure, particularly to energy markets, was a surprise announcement from OPEC+. The group reportedly agreed to accelerate oil output hikes again in June, potentially bringing back substantial supply by November, seemingly as a move by Saudi Arabia to discipline members exceeding quotas. This unexpected shift sent WTI crude prices tumbling below $58 per barrel. 

In major corporate news, legendary investor Warren Buffett announced his intention to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of 2025, confirming Greg Abel as his successor. Buffett characteristically downplayed the extreme market volatility seen over the past month. Elsewhere, the currency markets continue to show signs of stress related to U.S. policy, highlighted by an extraordinary two-day surge in the Taiwan dollar against the U.S. dollar. Action was muted in global stock markets due to holidays in Asia and the UK, while continental Europe saw modest gains. Investors now brace for a busy week featuring critical central bank meetings (Fed, BOE) and key economic data like the ISM Services PMI.

Economic Calendar

Today’s U.S. economic calendar features services and employment data releases, alongside a Treasury auction:

• 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Composite PMI (Apr-Final, prior 51.2) 
• 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Services PMI (Apr-Final, prior 51.4) 
• 10:00 AM ET: Employment Trends for April 
• 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April (Est. 50.2, prior 50.8) 
• 1:00 PM ET: U.S. Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes 
• Other Key Events: OPEC+ Meeting discussions ongoing/reactions monitored. DA Davidson Financial Institutions Conference (Scottsdale, AZ). Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference. China Caixin Services PMI (Released).
• Holidays: Hong Kong, Japan, UK.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Crude oil prices plunged in overnight trading, with WTI falling below $58 (-1.3%) after OPEC+ unexpectedly agreed to accelerate production increases for June, adding to supply concerns amid weak demand signals. Gold prices, conversely, continued to rebound (+2.4%), pushing back above $3,320/oz as trade uncertainties linger and potentially benefiting from broader dollar weakness themes, despite today’s mixed action. The currency market saw dramatic moves in the Taiwan dollar over the weekend/early Asia, highlighting significant pressure on the U.S. dollar stemming from trade policies, although the majors showed mixed action pre-market (EUR/USD higher, USD/JPY higher). U.S. Treasury yields were little changed ahead of the U.S. open, with the 10-year yield hovering near 4.32%, consolidating after last week’s wild swings and ahead of the Fed meeting.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.92	USD/bbl	57.37
Brent	-0.72	USD/bbl	60.59
Gold	79	USD/oz	3322.1
EUR/USD	0.0046	USD	1.134
USD/JPY	-1	JPY	143.93
10-Year Note	0.002	%	0.04322

Looking Ahead 

Market direction today will likely depend on the ISM Services PMI report and any further clarification or commentary regarding trade talks or OPEC+ intentions. Headlines regarding Trump/Xi or potential trade negotiations remain a key catalyst. Later this week, the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday will be the main event, scrutinized for any shifts in tone regarding the economy, inflation, and the impact of tariffs. Earnings season also continues, providing company-level insights.