Closing Recap

U.S. stocks are poised for a higher open, with investors cheering another round of soft labor market data that solidified expectations for a September Fed rate cut; gold is pulling back from all-time highs on profit-taking, oil is down on supply concerns, while the dollar is mixed and Treasury yields are falling ahead of the key monthly jobs report. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar is mixed in quiet early trading as investors await fresh catalysts. The Euro is seeing modest gains against the greenback, while the Japanese Yen is slightly weaker.

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Point Higher: Equities indicate a positive start, building on yesterday’s gains as markets embrace signs of a cooling U.S. economy. 
• Rate Cut Hopes Drive Sentiment: Weaker-than-expected ADP private payrolls and a rise in announced job cuts have cemented market conviction for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in two weeks. 
• Focus on Nonfarm Payrolls: Today’s official August Nonfarm Payrolls report is the main event and will be the final major data point influencing the Fed’s September decision. 
• Broad Gains Yesterday, Tech Still Leads: Thursday saw broad market strength with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushing higher, led by a rotation in mega-cap leadership (META, AMZN). 
• Gold Eases from Records: Gold prices are pulling back slightly from the new all-time highs set yesterday, likely on profit-taking ahead of the jobs report. 
• Oil Slips on Supply Fears: Crude oil prices are declining after reports that OPEC+ is considering another supply boost for October. 
• Yields & Dollar Weaken: Treasury yields are continuing their sharp decline from the past two days, and the U.S. dollar is losing ground against the Euro and Yen, reflecting dovish Fed expectations. 
• Strong Earnings Season Recap: Q2 earnings season has been a significant tailwind, with 83% of companies beating estimates and an average EPS growth of 47%. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets are set to open on a positive note, extending the strong gains from the previous session as investors continue to interpret signs of a cooling economy as a green light for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The market has been in a “cruise control higher” mode, with a “buy the dip” mentality firmly in place, shrugging off concerns about valuations, tariffs, and geopolitical risks. Yesterday saw another broad rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushing higher, driven by a rotation in mega-cap leadership towards Meta and Amazon. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	350.06	0.0077	45621
S&P 500	53.82	0.0084	6502
Nasdaq	209.97	0.0098	21707
Russell 2000	29.64	0.0126	2379

Sentiment was further bolstered this week by a series of labor market data points that suggest a slowdown. The Challenger Job Cuts report for August showed a notable increase in announced layoffs, while yesterday’s ADP private payrolls figure came in weaker than expected. This has solidified market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen significantly, reflecting the current low-fear environment. 

All eyes are now squarely on this morning’s official August Nonfarm Payrolls report. Economists are looking for a modest addition of 75,000 jobs, but given the recent string of weaker data, any significant deviation could cause substantial market volatility. A much weaker number would likely cement rate cut expectations and could fuel a further rally, while a surprisingly strong print could challenge the dovish narrative and cause a pullback. In global markets, Asian equities were mixed, while European stocks are also seeing varied performance.

Economic Calendar

The official U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for August is the main event today, a critical data point for the Federal Reserve. Today’s Major U.S. Releases (Scheduled): 

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for August (Consensus: +75K, Prior: +73K) U.S. 
• Unemployment Rate for August (Consensus: 4.3%, Prior: 4.2%) 
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings for August (Consensus: +0.3% m/m, +3.7% y/y) 

Data released yesterday: 

• Challenger Job Cuts (Aug): 85,979 (up 39% m/m, +13% y/y). 
• ADP Private Payrolls (Aug): +54K (below +65K est.). 
• Weekly Jobless Claims: 237K (above 230K est.). 
• Q2 Non-Farm Productivity (Revised): +3.3% (above +2.7% est.). 
• ISM Services PMI (Aug): 52.0 (above 51.0 est.). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices are pulling back slightly from the all-time highs set yesterday, with December futures down $28.80 (-0.79%) to settle at $3,606.70 per ounce. The move appears to be profit-taking ahead of the crucial U.S. jobs report. Crude oil prices are also extending losses, with WTI settling down $0.49 (-0.77%) at $63.48/bbl, pressured by reports that OPEC+ is considering another supply boost for October. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.49	USD/bbl	63.48
Brent	-0.61	USD/bbl	66.99
Gold	-28.8	USD/oz	3606.7
EUR/USD	-0.0013	USD	1.1649
USD/JPY	0.39	JPY	148.47
10-Year Note	-0.044	%	0.04166

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to recover after recent weakness, finding some support ahead of the NFP data. The Euro is easing after failing to hold above 1.17, while the Yen is also weakening against the dollar. U.S. Treasury yields are in a sell-off mode after several days of declines, with the 10-year yield down -4.4 basis points to 4.166%. Bitcoin is holding steady above the $111,000 level, and Ethereum is pulling back after reaching its highest level since late 2021.

Looking Ahead 

The market’s entire focus is on the 8:30 AM ET release of the August Nonfarm Payrolls report. The data will be the final, and most critical, input for the Federal Reserve’s September 16-17 policy meeting. A number in line with or weaker than the low expectations will likely cement a 25-basis-point rate cut and could fuel further equity market gains. A surprisingly strong report, however, could challenge the dovish narrative, potentially leading to a sharp reversal in stocks, a spike in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, and further pressure on gold. Expect significant volatility around the release. The strong momentum in cryptocurrencies will also be a key theme for traders to watch.