Weekly Market Review

Closing Recap

U.S. equities suffered a brutal end to the week, driven lower by a toxic cocktail of geopolitical escalation and a shockingly poor labor market report. The S&P 500 plunged 1.33% on Friday, sealing its worst week since mid-October (-2.02%). The dominant catalyst was the intensifying U.S.-Iran war, which disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and sent WTI Crude skyrocketing over 12% on Friday alone to close at $90.90. Adding to the stagflation fears, the U.S. unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February—the worst non-recessionary print since 2003. As Goldman Sachs aptly summarized, the main market flow this week was simply “Dollar vs. Everything,” with the greenback acting as a wrecking ball against global currencies, crypto, and equities.

Key Takeaways (The Week in 60 Seconds)

• Stocks Slump as War Fears Eclipse Weak Jobs Data: U.S. equities finished a turbulent week lower, with the S&P 500 falling 2.02%. A shocking jobs report showing 92,000 lost jobs failed to rally stocks as investors fled risk assets amid a major escalation in the Middle East conflict.
• Historic Oil Spike: U.S. WTI crude posted its largest weekly gain on record (data back to 1982), surging +34.5% this week to breach $90/bbl on Middle East supply fears.
• Oil Prices Explode Higher: WTI Crude surged over 12% on Friday alone, closing near $91/barrel – its highest level since 2023. The U.S./Iran conflict has intensified, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and sparking fears of $150 oil if Gulf producers declare force majeure.
• Gold’s Historic Outflow: Despite jumping $80 on Friday due to war fears, Gold posted a weekly decline. Strikingly, the $GLD ETF saw a massive $2.91 Billion outflow on Wednesday—its largest in a decade. Gold rallied sharply on Friday, gaining $80 to settle near $5,159. The metal is caught between geopolitical panic and fading rate cut hopes.
• Job Market Contraction Shocks Markets: The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, the first negative print since the pandemic outside of a recession. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, boosting June rate cut odds but crushing Treasury yields on Friday.
• Yen Weakness Persists: USD/JPY climbed for a third week, testing the 158.00 level. The BoJ faces a dilemma: intervene to stop the Yen’s slide or hold fire as the Middle East conflict threatens Japan’s energy-dependent economy.
• “Dollar vs. Everything”: The U.S. Dollar (DXY) rallied to the 99 level, absorbing massive safe-haven flows and crushing the Euro, Pound, and Yen.
• Record Calm Shattered: The S&P 500’s incredibly tight 2.7% trading range over the first 41 days of the year (the narrowest since 1928) broke violently to the downside.
• Bitcoin Struggles Below $70k: Crypto remains under pressure, failing to hold the $70,000 level as risk-off sentiment dominates. Bitcoin fell 5% Friday, decoupling from the broader commodity rally.
• Rate Cut Repricing: Year-end Fed rate-cut expectations have plunged to ~40 basis points (down from 60 bps), as soaring energy costs threaten to reignite inflation despite the job losses.
• Week Ahead Focus – Inflation & War: Markets face a binary week: US CPI (Wed) and PCE (Fri) will determine if the Fed is trapped by stagflation, while headlines from the Iran conflict will drive oil volatility.

Looking Ahead

The market is staring down the barrel of a classic “Stagflation” trap. The “vibe” for next week is defined by Geopolitical Risk and Inflation Realities. Four years into the Ukraine war, the global economy is now grappling with a fresh energy crisis stemming from the Middle East. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to vessels (disrupting ~20% of global oil/gas), the spike in energy prices threatens to undo the Fed’s inflation progress.

Next week features a brutal double-header of inflation data: CPI on Wednesday and PCE on Friday. The Fed is officially boxed in. They cannot cut rates aggressively to save a deteriorating labor market (-92k jobs) if oil at $90+ is feeding a secondary inflation wave.

Weekly Market Narrative: Stagflation Fears and the Fog of War

The narrative on Wall Street shifted violently this week from “No Landing” to “Stagflationary Shock.” The trigger was a dual blow: a surprising contraction in the U.S. labor market (-92k jobs) combined with an explosive rally in oil prices driven by the Middle East geopolitical risk events. Bank of America warned that while the U.S. is less exposed to oil shocks as a net exporter, a sustained spike in crude is the real risk to the economy. Every $10 rise in crude trims GDP and lifts inflation by ~0.1 percentage points.JPMorgan notes that investor behavior is mirroring the 2022 Ukraine invasion playbook: rapid selling of bonds, gold trailing oil demand, and the U.S. Dollar strengthening against everything else.

Index	Last Closing Level	Daily Change	Daily Change %	Weekly Change %
DJ Industrials	47,501	-453.19	-0.95%	-3.01%
S&P 500	6,739	-90.72	-1.33%	-2.02%
Nasdaq	22,387	-361.31	-1.59%	-1.24%
Russell 2000	2,525	-60.27	-2.33%	Weak

Typically, a weak jobs report would send stocks soaring on Fed cut bets. However, the geopolitical reality of $90+ oil has terrified investors. Higher energy costs threaten to re-ignite inflation just as the economy shows cracks, potentially handcuffing the Fed. The S&P 500 posted its worst week since mid-October, and volatility is structural, with the market’s trading range tightening to historic levels before this breakout. The “Dollar vs. Everything” trade dominated until Friday’s jobs miss, which finally saw yields plunge and the Greenback trim gains.

Economic Data Calendar: March 9 – 13, 2026

Markets enter the week on a razor’s edge. The interplay between the Iran War headlines and critical US Inflation Data will dictate whether the sell-off deepens or stabilizes. A critical week where inflation prints will collide with the fallout from the global energy shock.

• MON (Mar 9): Chinese Inflation
  • China CPI (Feb): Expected to rise to 0.8%. A weak number would highlight China’s struggles while the rest of the world battles war-induced inflation.
• TUE (Mar 10): Japanese Growth
  • Data: Japan Q4 GDP. Crucial for the BoJ as stagflation risks rise.
• WED (Mar 11): US CPI
  • Data: US Consumer Price Index (Feb). Expectations are for 2.5% YoY Headline and 2.5% YoY Core. This data precedes the current oil spike but will set the baseline for Fed expectations.
  • Data: Eurozone HICP.
  • Data: Japanese GDP (Q4): A final look at growth before the war shock.
• THU (Mar 12): BoE Commentary
  • Event: BoE Governor Bailey Speech. Will provide insight into how the UK plans to navigate the energy shock.
  • Data: US CPI (Feb): The Main Event. Consensus is +0.2% MoM. A hot print here, combined with the job losses, screams “Stagflation.”
• FRI (Mar 13): The Fed’s Preferred Gauge
  • Data: US Core PCE (Jan). Expected at 3.1% YoY. Any upside surprise will further crush hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts.
  • Data: Canadian Employment (Feb) & US UMich Sentiment (Mar).
  • US Consumer Sentiment (Mar): Expect a sharp drop as Americans react to surging gas prices and war headlines.
  • Canadian Employment (Feb): Critical for the Loonie, which is benefitting from the oil spike.

Asset Class Deep Dive: Commodities, Currencies, Crypto & Treasuries

Energy is the only story that matters right now. Oil is in a “super-spike.” WTI gained nearly 35% this week, the largest weekly move on record (data back to 1982). WTI Crude exploded past $90, settling at $90.90 (+12.21% Friday) on fears of an unconditional US-Iran war and Gulf production shutdowns. The US is offering $20 billion in reinsurance to keep shippers moving through the Gulf.The market is pricing in a legitimate supply outage scenario in the Persian Gulf. Precious Metals had a schizophrenic week. Gold spiked $80 on Friday to settle at $5,158.70 on haven demand, but actually closed the week lower following a massive, decade-high $2.91 Billion ETF outflow earlier in the week. Silver, however, crashed nearly 10% for the week, suffering from its industrial linkage as recession fears rose.

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Weekly Change / Note
WTI Crude	$90.90	+9.89	+34.5% (Historic Wkly Gain)
Brent Crude	$92.69	+7.28	Strait of Hormuz Risk
Gold (Apr)	$5,158.70	+80.00	+1.55% (War Premium)
Silver	~$83.82	Volatile	-9.6% (Industrial Lag)
EUR/USD	1.1602	-0.00	-1.0% approx (Risk Off)
USD/JPY	157.73	+0.16	+1.0% approx (3rd Up Week)
10-Year Note	4.131%	-0.014	Yields plunge on Jobs Miss
Bitcoin	~$69,000	-5.0%	Risk-Off Pressure

FX Breakdown

• USD/JPY: Pressing dangerously close to 158.00. The Yen failed to act as a safe haven. BoJ Governor Ueda openly warned that the Middle East conflict could severely damage Japan’s economy, raising the specter of stagflation and jeopardizing their rate hike plans.The BoJ is paralyzed by the conflict’s inflationary impact vs. the economic hit.
• EUR/USD: Dropped to 1.1602. The massive risk-aversion and “Dollar vs Everything” flow is suffocating the Euro, despite European inflation ticking higher in February.EUR/USD erased all its yearly gains, closing near 1.1600 as the Eurozone’s energy vulnerability makes it a top short.
• GBP/USD: Crumbled to test three-month lows near 1.3250 before a minor bounce to 1.3390. UK economic stagnation paired with soaring energy costs has forced markets to slash BoE rate cut odds (from >80% to less than 15%), leaving the Pound highly vulnerable.

Bitcoin: The crypto asset fell below 70,000, failing to act as ‘digital gold’ during the crisis. Liquidations were modest ($370M), suggesting exhaustion rather than panic selling. Bonds had a wild Friday. The horrific -92k jobs print caused Treasury yields to drop sharply intraday (the 2-year yield fell 4.5 bps to 3.554%), but the overwhelming inflationary threat of $91 oil meant yields still finished the week nearly 18 bps higher.

What to Watch Next Week

1. The Energy Shock: Oil at $90 is painful; oil at $120 is a recession. Watch the Strait of Hormuz news closely. Any confirmed closure or tanker attacks could send crude vertical, crushing equities and spiking yields regardless of the Fed.
2. The Inflation Data Trap (CPI & PCE): Wednesday (CPI) and Friday (PCE) will dictate the bond market’s reaction function. The Fed just saw the economy lose 92,000 jobs. Normally, this guarantees rate cuts. But if Wednesday and Friday’s inflation prints come in hot – especially with oil surging in the background – the Fed is paralyzed. This “stagflation” realization could trigger a much deeper equity selloff.
3. The “Dollar vs Everything” Wrecking Ball: The U.S. Dollar is functioning as the world’s ultimate safe haven right now. If the DXY breaks decisively above 100, it will export inflation to Europe and Japan, forcing their central banks into incredibly difficult policy decisions. 
4. Japanese Intervention: With USD/JPY near 158 and oil soaring (hurting Japan), the Ministry of Finance may be forced to intervene to stop the bleeding. A sudden 300-pip drop in USD/JPY is a live risk.
5. The “Bad News is Bad News” Flip: For months, weak jobs data was bullish (Fed cuts). Now, with -92k jobs lost, weak data confirms the recession leg of the stagflation thesis. If Consumer Sentiment plunges on Friday, expect further downside in discretionary stocks.