Closing Recap 

U.S. stock futures point to a lower open, pulling back from last week’s record highs, as President Trump confirmed an August 1st start date for reciprocal tariffs and threatened new levies on BRICS-aligned nations; global markets are mixed, oil is consolidating, gold is down, and the dollar is firming. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Slip on Renewed Tariff Threats: Equities indicate a negative start to the week after President Trump confirmed an August 1st effective date for reciprocal tariffs and announced a new 10% tariff on countries aligning with BRICS. 
• Pullback from Record Highs: The weakness follows a strong rally last week that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at new all-time highs on Thursday, driven by a robust U.S. jobs report. 
• Trade Negotiation Deadline Looms: Trump’s confirmation sets the stage for a busy period of trade negotiations, with Treasury Secretary Bessent noting some countries may get a three-week extension beyond the July 9th deadline. 
• Global Markets Mixed: Asian markets were mostly lower on the tariff news, while European markets are showing some resilience. 
• Oil Consolidates: Crude oil prices are steady to slightly lower as the market weighs ongoing trade uncertainties against planned OPEC+ output increases. 
• Gold & Safe Havens Weaken: Gold prices are down, and the U.S. dollar is firmer as immediate risk sentiment sours slightly on the tariff news. 
• RBA Decision Awaited: The Reserve Bank of Australia began its two-day meeting, with a 25-basis-point rate cut widely expected.

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets are set to begin the week on a cautious note, with futures pointing lower after a weekend of fresh tariff developments from the White House. President Donald Trump confirmed via Truth Social that the “reciprocal” tariffs first outlined in April will officially take effect on August 1st for countries that have not secured a new trade deal with the U.S. Adding a new layer of uncertainty, Trump also threatened an additional 10% tariff on any country “aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of Bric’s,” a group of emerging economies. This news has tempered the strong risk-on sentiment that drove markets to record highs last week. 

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
Dow	-25	-0.0006	45072
S&P 500	-17.25	-0.0028	6306
Nasdaq	-91.5	-0.004	22971

Last week’s rally was powerful, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting significant weekly gains and closing at all-time highs on Thursday. The advance was fueled by a stronger-than-expected June jobs report, which eased economic slowdown fears, and continued momentum in technology stocks like Nvidia. The market has staged a remarkable recovery from its April lows, marking one of the fastest bear market recoveries in recent history. 

However, the renewed focus on tariffs is causing a pullback in global markets this morning. Asian indices were mostly lower, reacting to Trump’s confirmation of the tariff start date. European markets are mixed but also showing signs of caution. Commodity markets are reflecting the uncertainty, with crude oil consolidating and gold prices falling as the U.S. dollar firms. With a very light economic and earnings calendar today, market direction will be almost entirely dictated by reactions to the evolving trade narrative and positioning ahead of key deadlines.

Economic Calendar

Today’s U.S. economic calendar is very light, with the focus remaining on trade and geopolitical developments. 

• 10:00 AM ET: Employment Trends for June 
• U.S.-China trade negotiation progress monitored. 
• Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting begins (rate decision tomorrow). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Crude oil prices are consolidating, with WTI trading slightly lower around $66.28/bbl. The market is weighing the dampening effect of tariff threats on global demand against planned OPEC+ output increases and underlying supply fundamentals. Gold prices are down, with spot gold at $3,318.35 (-0.89%), pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar as investors react to the renewed tariff certainty. Silver is also down over 1%. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.2	USD/bbl	67.01
Brent	-0.26	USD/bbl	68.75
Gold	-35.4	USD/oz	3307.5
EUR/USD	-0.0052	USD	1.1726
USD/JPY	0.9	JPY	145.45
10-Year Note	0.014	%	0.04354

The U.S. dollar index is firming, recovering from recent weakness as the tariff news perhaps reduces the perceived likelihood of aggressive near-term Fed cuts. The Euro has weakened against the dollar, while the dollar has gained against the Yen. U.S. Treasury yields are modestly higher, with the 10-year yield up about 1.4 basis points to 4.354%.

Looking Ahead 

The market will be highly sensitive to any further details or clarifications regarding the August 1st tariff implementation and the newly threatened BRICS tariff. The progress of last-minute negotiations with various trading partners ahead of the Wednesday deadline will be a key focus. The RBA rate decision tomorrow will set the tone for central bank activity this week. With a light U.S. data calendar today, trade headlines and geopolitical sentiment will be the primary drivers of market activity.