Closing Recap (Week Ending November 7th) 

U.S. stocks staged a dramatic afternoon reversal on Friday, bouncing nearly 100 points off their lows to finish mostly higher but this wasn’t enough to avert weekly losses, as dip-buyers emerged amid hopes for a deal to end the prolonged government shutdown. In currency markets, the US Dollar was choppy and ended little changed for the week, with EUR/USD gaining to close above 1.15, GBP/USD rebounding for its first weekly gain in three, and USD/JPY recovering late Friday. Gold gained for the week on haven demand, oil posted a weekly loss, and Bitcoin saw a strong rebound after a mid-week crash test. 

Key Takeaways 

• Stocks Stage Late-Week Reversal: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 successfully tested and recovered their 50-day moving averages on Friday, leading a sharp afternoon rally that pushed major indices higher but still couldn’t save the week and closed bearish for the first time since the 1st week of October. 
• Currency Pairs Reflect Dollar Chop: The US Dollar was volatile; EUR/USD finished the week positive above 1.1560 as traders favored the euro over the dollar amid the shutdown. GBP/USD also managed a weekly gain, while USD/JPY rebounded to 153.41 but ended the week down. 
• Government Shutdown Past Day 38: The record-long government shutdown continues to be a primary market focus, delaying key economic data and starting to have tangible impacts on the economy, such as airline flight cuts. 
• Bitcoin Survives “Crash Test”: After briefly plunging below $100,000 mid-week, Bitcoin rebounded strongly to above $103,800 as “whale” accumulation and renewed ETF inflows fueled a recovery. 
• Gold Surges Back Above $4,000 on Safe-Haven Demand: Gold acted as the primary beneficiary of the risk-off mood, rallying on haven demand driven by the shutdown, weak Chinese trade data, and plunging U.S. consumer confidence.
• Oil Falls Weekly: WTI crude oil fell ~2% for the week on oversupply fears. 
• Tech Under Pressure: The semiconductor sector (SOX) was a notable underperformer, falling -7% for the week and leading the tech-heavy Nasdaq lower amid AI valuation concerns. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: With the US calendar light due to the shutdown, focus shifts to global data, including Chinese CPI (Sun), UK/Australian employment data (Tue/Thu), and preliminary UK/EZ GDP (Thu/Fri). 

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market enters another week where fundamentals will be led by international data and domestic politics due to the ongoing US government shutdown. With the record-long U.S. government shutdown creating a “data void” and fueling economic uncertainty, markets will be highly sensitive to any political developments in Washington. A deal to reopen the government would likely spark a significant risk-on rally. With key US reports like CPI and PPI likely delayed, traders will have to rely on secondary data and any progress in Washington. 

The focus will be on Chinese inflation data (Sunday) to start the week, followed by a slew of important releases from the UK and Australia. UK employment data (Tuesday) and preliminary Q3 GDP (Thursday) will be crucial for the Bank of England’s outlook, as markets are pricing a 58% chance of a December rate cut. Australian employment data (Thursday) will also be key for the RBA. Other notable releases include New Zealand’s inflation expectations (Tuesday) and Eurozone’s Q3 GDP estimate (Friday). A heavy slate of US Treasury auctions will test investor appetite for long-dated bonds amidst the political deadlock. The ongoing earnings season will also continue to provide bottom-up insights into corporate health. Expect a week where fundamentals take a backseat to political headlines and international data.

Market Overview

For the first time in over six months, the market’s “buy the dip” mentality faced its most severe test. A growing list of concerns—from frothy AI valuations to the real-world economic bite of the record-long government shutdown—drove a week of steady selling pressure. U.S. stocks were firmly in the red for most of Friday, pressured by growing fears over the economic impact of a prolonged government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history at 38 days. Concerns over high valuations in the AI and tech space, which had seen a significant pullback this week, also weighed on sentiment. However, in another classic “buy the dip” moment, markets staged a powerful afternoon rally. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 breached their critical 50-day moving average support levels for the first time since May, only to find strong buying interest that propelled them back into positive territory by the close. The rally was sparked by hopes that lawmakers in Washington were making progress toward a deal to end the shutdown, which is now causing tangible disruptions, including airline flight cancellations. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	46987	74.8	0.0016	-1.11%
S&P 500	6728	8.49	0.0013	-1.50%
Nasdaq	23004	-49.46	-0.0022	-3.19%
Russell 2000	2432	14	0.0058	-2.11%

The digital asset space experienced its own dramatic test. Bitcoin briefly plunged below the psychological $100,000 mark for the second time this week, in a move linked to a temporary liquidity drain. However, it quickly rebounded to trade above $103,800, a recovery fueled by significant accumulation from large holders (“whales”) and renewed ETF inflows. This “crash test” has analysts debating whether a bottom is in, or if further downside is possible. Elsewhere, the ongoing shutdown, which has now delayed a second consecutive non-farm payrolls report, has created a “data void” for investors and the Federal Reserve.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of November 10th) 

SUN (Nov 10): 

• Chinese CPI (Oct): Expected to remain in deflationary territory (0% Y/Y vs -0.3% prior). A key inflation reading that will provide insight into consumer demand in China.

MON (Nov 10): 

• BoJ Summary of Opinions (Oct Meeting): Details from the last Bank of Japan meeting will be scrutinized for clues on the timing of a potential future rate hike.

TUE (Nov 12): 

• UK Jobs Report (Oct – ILO Unemployment & Avg. Earnings): Unemployment rate exp. to rise to 4.9%. Watched closely for signs of labor market weakening. This is a critical report for the Bank of England’s “live” December meeting.
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov): Investor confidence for Germany. 
• US Veterans Day Holiday: Treasury Market Closed, Stock Market Open. 

WED (Nov 13): 

• German Final CPI (Oct): Final inflation reading for Germany. 

THU (Nov 14): 

• Australian Employment Report (Oct): Employment change exp. +14.5k, Unemployment rate exp. to fall to 4.4%. 
• UK Prelim GDP (Q3): Expected to show modest growth (+0.2% Q/Q). The first look at Britain’s economic growth for the third quarter.
• US CPI (Oct – LIKELY DELAYED): While on the calendar, this vital inflation report is not expected to be released until the shutdown ends.

FRI (Nov 15): 

• Chinese Activity Data (Oct – Industrial Production, Retail Sales): IP exp. 5.5% Y/Y, Retail Sales exp. 2.8% Y/Y. 
• Eurozone GDP (Q3 – Second Estimate): Revised look at Eurozone growth. 
• US PPI & Retail Sales (Oct) [LIKELY DELAYED]: Key US inflation and consumption data, but releases are uncertain.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold was the undisputed safe-haven winner this week, rising to settle back above the critical $4,000 per ounce level. December gold prices rose on Friday to settle at $4,009.80/oz, finishing the week with small gains. The metal topped the $4,000 level as the prolonged US government shutdown and weak consumer sentiment data stoked safe-haven demand, and as China’s central bank continued its gold buying for the 12th straight month. Crude oil prices (WTI) rose slightly on Friday but registered a weekly decline of around 2% to settle at $59.75/bbl, pressured by an unexpected build in US inventories and concerns that leading producers will continue to raise output. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	59.75	0.32	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	63.63	0.25	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	4003	12	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1579	0.0031	Rate
USD/JPY	153.08	0.02	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04073	-0.0002	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	~103,800	(+1.8%)	USD

In the currency markets, the US Dollar was choppy and ended the week little changed, with the DXY holding near 99.50. But in the second half of the week The currency market was driven by a distinct anti-dollar sentiment as the prolonged government shutdown weighed on the greenback, forcing risk-averse traders to seek havens elsewhere:

• EUR/USD: The pair managed to save its week after starting with heavy selling, closing in positive territory above the key 1.1500 level. In a notable divergence, traders opted to buy the Euro as a haven instead of the U.S. Dollar as Wall Street sold off, despite a narrowing German trade surplus. 
• GBP/USD: Sterling found relief after two consecutive down weeks, finishing up 0.10% near 1.3163. The rebound from session lows was supported by a slightly weaker dollar and markets digesting last week’s narrow 5-4 vote at the Bank of England to keep rates on hold, which was more dovish than expected. 
• USD/JPY: The pair ended its winning streak, closing down for the first negative week in three as the Yen benefited from safe-haven flows. The pair saw a sharp 100-pip drop on Thursday as risk aversion peaked, but rebounded above 153.00 on Friday as the late-day stock market rally reduced haven demand. Still, analysts at BofA see the risk of an overshoot toward 160 before Japan is forced to intervene.

U.S. Treasury yields were flat on Friday but down for the week, as economic uncertainty from the shutdown kept a bid in bonds. The crypto market faced a week of reckoning. Bitcoin twice tested and broke below the psychological $100,000 level, triggering fears of a deeper correction. However, the price quickly rebounded each time, with on-chain data showing that large “whale” investors accumulated roughly $3 billion worth of BTC on the dip. While the market remains fragile, this strong accumulation and a new bullish forecast from JPMorgan suggest smart money views the recent crash as a buying opportunity.

What to Watch Next Week

• The Shutdown Endgame: This remains the single most important driver for markets. All eyes will be on Washington over the weekend for any signs of a breakthrough to end the deadlock. The economic damage is now undeniable, and failure to reach a deal could lead to a decisive break lower in stocks, while a resolution would likely spark a significant relief rally. 
• Global Employment Health Check: With no U.S. jobs report, the focus shifts to other major economies. The UK’s employment and wage data on Tuesday is critical. A further softening in the labor market could cement expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in December. Similarly, Australia’s jobs report on Thursday will be pivotal for the RBA, which has recently turned more hawkish. 
• China’s Economic Reality: After last week’s report showed a collapse in exports, Friday’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales data is now a crucial event. Another set of weak numbers would confirm a significant slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, likely weighing on global risk sentiment.