Daily Market Review
Date:
9.4.25Closing Recap
U.S. stocks suffered a stunning reversal, erasing gains of over 4% to finish sharply lower as confirmation of massive additional tariffs on China overwhelmed earlier optimism from trade talks; Treasury yields rose after a weak auction, oil fell further, while gold managed gains.
Key Takeaways
- Dramatic Reversal: Markets experienced a huge intraday swing, with early gains of 3-4% completely evaporating into a significant late-day sell-off (S&P 500 down 7.5% from highs).
- Massive China Tariffs Confirmed: White House confirmed an additional 104% (50% new levy) tariff on China goes into effect at midnight as Beijing did not withdraw retaliation, crushing sentiment.
- Early Optimism Fades: Initial rally fueled by hopes of negotiated tariff reductions following positive talks with Japan, South Korea, and others proved fleeting.
- Broad Market Weakness: All S&P sectors turned negative after being higher earlier; Materials, Energy, and Retailers were hit particularly hard.
- Bulls Fail to Hold: A significant failure by buyers to sustain the early rally underscores the deep-seated fear surrounding the trade war.
- Treasury Yields Rise: Yields reversed earlier declines and pushed higher, particularly after a poorly received 3-year note auction.
- Oil Down Again, Gold Gains: Crude oil fell for a fourth straight session on demand fears, while gold climbed but finished off its intraday highs.
Market Overview
Fear decisively retook control of Wall Street today, resulting in a breathtaking reversal that saw impressive early gains dissolve into a sharp late-session decline. The day began on a surprisingly positive note, with major indices surging 3-4% across the board. This initial optimism was fueled by reports of constructive trade talks between the U.S. and several key partners, including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Israel, and Cambodia, raising hopes that the most damaging aspects of the new tariff regime could potentially be negotiated away. Markets initially shrugged off defiant rhetoric from China’s Commerce Ministry vowing to “fight to the end.”
Index | Up/Down | % Change | Last |
DJ Industrials | -320.01 | -0.0084 | 37645 |
S&P 500 | -79.48 | -0.0157 | 4982 |
Nasdaq | -335.35 | -0.0215 | 15267 |
Russell 2000 | -49.43 | -0.0273 | 1760 |
However, the fragile positive sentiment shattered in the afternoon. The White House Press Secretary confirmed that because China had not withdrawn its retaliatory tariffs by the deadline, the threatened additional 104% (a new 50% levy on top of existing ones) tariffs on Chinese goods would indeed go into effect at midnight tonight (April 9th). This confirmation, though perhaps not entirely surprising given the prior threats, acted as a powerful negative catalyst, sending stocks tumbling.
The scale of the reversal was immense, with the Nasdaq collapsing 1,200 points from its intraday high to its low, and the S&P 500 giving back over 300 points. Selling pressure broadened rapidly, dragging all eleven S&P sectors into the red, with Materials (XLB), Energy (XLE), and Retailers (XRT) suffering the most acute declines. The failure to hold the morning’s strong gains highlighted the market’s extreme sensitivity to tariff news and the deep-seated fear of a prolonged and damaging trade war.
Economic Data
No major U.S. economic data releases drove market action yesterday; the focus was entirely on trade developments and market sentiment.The main economic event today is the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, providing details on policymakers’ thinking from their last gathering.
- 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Meeting Minutes Release. (Minutes from the previous meeting where the US Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%.)
Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries
Gold prices managed to close higher, settling up $16.60 at $2,990.20 per ounce, though it pared gains significantly from intraday highs above $3,037. The precious metal continues to benefit from safe-haven flows amid escalating trade war fears and recession concerns, although volatility remains high. Crude oil prices extended their losing streak to four sessions, with WTI settling down 1.85% at $59.58 per barrel. Early gains were erased as the confirmation of massive tariffs on China stoked fears of severe demand destruction and potential retaliation impacting U.S. crude purchases. Treasury yields reversed course throughout the day, pushing notably higher in the afternoon.
Asset | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | -1.12 | 59.58 |
Brent | -1.39 | 62.82 |
Gold | 16.6 | 2990.2 |
EUR/USD | 0.0064 | 1.0968 |
USD/JPY | -1.78 | 146.04 |
10-Year Note | 0.101 | 0.04258 |
The 10-year yield climbed above 4.26% after hitting lows near 4.13%, driven partly by a lackluster 3-year Treasury note auction that showed weak demand (evidenced by a large “tail” and high dealer takedown). The 30-year yield also rose significantly. Currency markets likely reflected the shifting risk sentiment, with the Dollar’s direction potentially mixed given the yield rise counteracting safe-haven flows (EUR/USD higher, USD/JPY lower suggests dollar weakness).
Looking Ahead
The implementation of the staggering 104% additional tariffs on China at midnight tonight will be the key event driving markets into tomorrow’s session. Investors will watch closely for any immediate fallout or further retaliatory signals. While faint hopes of negotiation with other countries persist, the U.S.-China trade conflict has escalated dramatically. Market focus will also turn to the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for insights into their thinking amidst the rapidly deteriorating trade backdrop. Upcoming inflation data and the start of earnings season remain on the calendar but are likely to be viewed through the lens of the ongoing trade war. Volatility is expected to remain exceptionally high.