Closing Recap (Week Ending November 14th) 

U.S. stocks saw another volatile session on Friday, with a dramatic “buy the dip” rally off the lows failing to prevent major indices from closing out their third consecutive week of losses. In currency markets, the US Dollar was choppy but ended mostly firmer, with EUR/USD ending the week positive despite a Friday slip, GBP/USD hovering near seven-month lows, and USD/JPY rebounding toward nine-month highs. Gold and Bitcoin both tumbled as hawkish Fed commentary and inflation worries took hold. 

Key Takeaways 

• Stocks Post 3rd Straight Weekly Loss: Despite a massive afternoon rally off the lows Friday, major indices ended the week down. Tech (XLK -4.2%) lagged, while Healthcare (XLV +4%) was a bright spot. 
• Stocks Stage Massive Reversals to End Week Lower: In a week of extreme volatility, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq repeatedly broke below their 50-day moving averages only to be saved by aggressive dip buyers, though major indices still posted a third consecutive week of losses.
• Currency Pairs Reflect Shifting Fed Bets: The US Dollar was volatile; EUR/USD posted a weekly gain of +0.51% but slipped on Friday, GBP/USD was mired near seven-month lows at 1.3173, and USD/JPY rebounded to 154.60 as Fed cut bets were pared. 
• Fed Cut Hopes Dashed: A growing number of hawkish Fed officials signaled restraint on further easing, causing the probability of a December rate cut to fall to 53% from 95% a month ago. 
• Bitcoin Enters Bear Market: Bitcoin plunged to a 6-month low below $95,000, entering a bear market (down >20% from its peak) as the sell-off in risk assets accelerated and massive liquidations hit the crypto market. The sell-off was fueled by fading rate cut hopes, massive ETF outflows, and a break of critical technical support. 
• Gold Tumbles on Hawkish Fed, But Still Ends Week Higher: Gold saw a sharp intra-week sell-off of over 3.5% as rate cut bets faded, but strong safe-haven demand allowed it to finish the week with a 2.1% gain, supported by secretive central bank buying.
• Government Shutdown Ends, Setting Stage for Data Deluge: The record-long, 43-day U.S. government shutdown has concluded. A schedule for critical delayed economic reports has been released, with the September Jobs Report now confirmed for Thursday, November 20th.
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: The main event is the delayed September US jobs report (Thu). The FOMC Minutes (Wed) and a heavy slate of global inflation data (UK/Canada) and Flash PMIs (Fri) are also in focus. 

Looking ahead

After a volatile week that saw stocks post a third straight weekly loss and Bitcoin enter a bear market, investors will be eagerly awaiting the release of long-delayed US economic data. Looking ahead, the market will finally get a look at some of the crucial economic data that has been delayed by the government shutdown. The highlight will be the delayed September jobs report, now scheduled for release on Thursday. This report, along with other catch-up releases like construction spending and trade data, will be critical for shaping the Fed’s December decision. The minutes from the FOMC’s October meeting will be released on Wednesday, providing a more detailed look at the growing divisions within the committee. 

Internationally, a heavy slate of inflation data is due, including key reports from the UK and Canada. A busy schedule of Fedspeak and preliminary “flash” PMIs for November from the US, UK, and Eurozone on Friday will also be crucial for gauging the health of the global economy. With the government now reopened, the focus shifts from political deadlock back to economic fundamentals, making for a potentially pivotal week for markets.

Market Overview 

It was another wild and volatile week on Wall Street, where the bulls and bears fought a fierce battle at a critical technical level. It was another highly volatile day on Wall Street, perfectly encapsulating a week where “dip buyers” were once again rewarded, but not without significant stress. U.S. stocks opened at the lows on Friday, extending a sell-off driven by dashed hopes of an imminent Fed rate cut in December. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sharply breached their 50-day moving average supports at the open, similar to last Friday, before a powerful wave of buying reversed the losses and led to a massive rally off the lows. Despite this intraday rebound, major stock indices still closed the week with losses for the third consecutive week. Sector performance was divergent, with technology lagging on AI valuation concerns, while healthcare and biotech were standout leaders, buoyed by M&A activity. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	47147	-309.74	-0.0065	-0.71%
S&P 500	6734	-3.38	-0.0005	-0.76%
Nasdaq	22900	30.23	0.0013	-0.70%
Russell 2000	2388	5.46	0.0023	-2.25%

The primary driver of the market’s anxiety was a clear shift in tone from Federal Reserve officials. A growing number of policymakers have signaled a rising bar for another rate cut, citing stubbornly high inflation and the lack of official economic data due to the now-concluded 43-day government shutdown. This has caused the market-implied probability of a December rate cut to plummet from over 90% a month ago to just 53%. This hawkish shift hammered rate-sensitive assets: gold prices tumbled as much as 3.5% on Friday, and Bitcoin plunged to a 6-month low below $95,000, entering a bear market and suffering another round of massive liquidations.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of November 17th) 

MON (Nov 18): 

• Japanese Preliminary Q3 GDP: Provides a snapshot of Japan’s economic health amid ongoing political and monetary policy shifts.
• G20 meeting.
• US Manufacturers’ Orders (Aug – Delayed): Catch-up data release. The first of the backlogged data releases.
• Fed Speakers: Williams, Jefferson, Kashkari. 

TUE (Nov 19): 

• RBA Meeting Minutes: Details from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest policy meeting. 
• US International Trade (Aug – Delayed): Catch-up data release. More catch-up data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

WED (Nov 20): 

• FOMC Minutes (Oct Meeting): Details of the Fed’s debate, where a hawkish tone emerged. 
• UK CPI (Oct): Key inflation data for the BoE; a moderation would cement December rate cut bets. 
• Canadian CPI (Oct): Inflation data for the BoC. 

THU (Nov 21): 

• US Employment Report (Sep – DELAYED): The highly anticipated release of the September jobs report. The main event of the week. This is the first official U.S. jobs report the market has seen since the shutdown began.
• PBoC Interest Rate Decision: China’s loan prime rate setting. 
• US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Mfg. Survey (Nov): US labor and regional activity data. 

FRI (Nov 22): 

• Global Flash PMIs (Nov – EZ, UK, US): First look at November business activity. 
• UK Retail Sales (Oct): UK consumer spending data. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

The commodities complex saw a sharp divergence. Gold prices tumbled sharply on Friday, with the December contract falling 2.39% to settle at $4,094.20/oz. The metal dropped as much as 3.5% intraday as hawkish comments from Fed officials clouded the prospects for a December rate cut. Despite the daily plunge, spot gold still managed to finish the week with a gain of 2.11%. Crude oil, meanwhile, finished the week roughly flat after a late-week rally, driven by supply fears following a Ukrainian drone attack on a major Russian oil port. Crude oil prices (WTI) rose 2.39% on Friday to settle at $60.09/bbl, boosted by supply fears after a Ukrainian drone attack on a major Russian oil port. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	60.09	1.4	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	64.39	1.38	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	4094.2	-100.3	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1617	-0.0014	Rate
USD/JPY	154.61	0.04	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.0414	0.0003	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	$94,594	-5.11%	USD

In the currency markets, the US Dollar was choppy but ended Friday slightly higher:

• EUR/USD: The pair finished the week up a surprising 0.51%, holding firmly above the 1.1600 level. The Euro’s resilience, even after seven consecutive days of gains led to some profit-taking on Friday, was supported by steady Q3 GDP growth figures from the Eurozone, which stood in contrast to the growing uncertainty in the U.S. 
• GBP/USD: The Pound tumbled to a seven-month low near 1.3108, although it managed a slight weekly gain of 0.08%. The currency remains under severe pressure from domestic political turmoil after the government abruptly abandoned plans for income tax hikes, creating a £30 billion hole in the budget and increasing fiscal uncertainty. 
• USD/JPY: The pair rebounded toward nine-month highs near 154.60, posting modest weekly gains. The Yen remains weak due to dovish comments from Prime Minister Takaichi, which have cooled expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. While traders are wary of intervention risk near the 155.00 level, the powerful tailwind of a stable Japanese government and a hawkish Fed is keeping the pair well-supported.

It was a brutal week for the crypto market. Bitcoin plunged to a six-month low below $95,000, officially entering a bear market. The crash was triggered by the broader sell-off in risky assets as Fed rate cut hopes faded. The move below the critical $100,000 support level was accompanied by massive ETF outflows and has analysts warning of a potential further crash toward the $70,000 level.

What to Watch Next Week

• The Data Deluge Begins: The September NFP: This is the week’s undisputed main event. On Thursday, the market will finally receive the delayed September Jobs Report. This will be the first piece of official, top-tier U.S. economic data in over a month and will be absolutely critical in shaping the market’s now-reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Expect extreme volatility around this release. 
• Reading the Fed’s Mind (With a Rearview Mirror): Before the jobs report, traders will dissect the FOMC Minutes from the October meeting on Wednesday. Given the recent hawkish commentary from several Fed members, the minutes will be scoured for details on how wide the division is within the committee and what the true bar is for a rate cut in December. 
• Inflation Watch: A Pivotal UK CPI Report: The UK inflation report on Wednesday is a crucial event for the British Pound. The Bank of England’s December decision is seen as a coin toss, with markets pricing roughly 80% odds of a cut. A further moderation in inflation would likely cement those expectations and could send Sterling lower.